I'm calling this article a Retro Recap. I stumbled across Game 5 of the 1999 NBA Finals on NBATV and a lot of thoughts came pouring out. So I thought I'd write them down for your entertainment. So lets just get started:
1st Quarter, 9:27. Latrell Sprewell just hit a shot and the camera goes in for a closeup. All I think about when I see Latrell are spinners and PJ Carlesimo with a bruised throat. It's easy to forget that Sprewell was a pretty good NBA player for a while.
9:12. Just caught a glimpse of Gregg Popovich and Jeff Van Gundy. Pop looks like he's fresh out of the Air Force and Van Gundy might have just given up on a real estate career. Also, why does Larry Johnson look like he was a long-haul trucker during the offseason?
7:05. I forgot that the Knicks were good at basketball once. This is a nice reminder.
5:55. Tim Duncan looks exactly the same as he does today in 2015. Maybe he's a little thinner here. But the moves are the same, the defense is the same. That same blank, robotic stare. There's something amazing about guys who seem to have another gear, who can do amazing things we've rarely seen in sports. I'm thinking Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan. But there's something equally amazing about guys who are consistently great for more than a decade. I think that might be harder to do. And Duncan has been a basketball artist for as long as I can remember. That leaves me in awe of him.
2:55. Avery Johnson cracks me up. If you've never seen David Robinson's impression of Avery, you're missing out. I'd link to it, but I can't find the video anywhere, which seems almost impossible these days. But use your imagination and picture The Admiral mimicking an angry and animated Little General. Yeah, it's even better than that.
2nd Quarter, 9:07. I forgot about Malik Rose. I always liked his game.
8:22. I don't care for Bob Costas. That's all.
2:30. It's weird to watch San Antonio play this game. Their style has changed so much since 1999, which is to say that the style of play in the NBA has changed so much since 1999. And it's for the best. The product is a lot more entertaining today. Much credit has to be given to the NBA for recognizing that the pace of play had to increase and then making the correct rule changes to encourage a faster, smoother game. Also, kudos to Popovich and the Spurs for seeing the direction the NBA was heading and adjusting sooner than everyone else. They completely changed their offensive system, something that isn't easy to do.
0:45. The broadcast just mentioned that David Robinson once scored 70 points in a game. I think it's easy to forget how dominant Robinson could be at times. Maybe it's because he didn't win a ring until Duncan came along and the perception is that obviously he wasn't that good if he couldn't win a title on his own. The dude was a beast, though, and killed it on both ends.
3rd Quarter, 7:42. Allan Houston just hit a long two, and somewhere 27-year-old Daryl Morey just got dizzy and felt a pain in his side. I forgot what a good shooter Houston was, and it's fun to watch him swish shot after shot in this game while everyone else looks like they were drafted off of a rugby team.
5:49. Marcus Camby is everywhere in this game. It's too bad he didn't play in today's NBA. He would have been a nightmare defensively. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory, has gained a lot of traction lately, but what's important to remember is how well Camby played in the 1999 playoffs. It's not surprising that the Knicks played better when they replaced an aging, immobile center with a young, athletic center. Camby made the 1999 Knicks a great defensive team.
1:19. Tim Duncan bank shot is good, because he's a machine.
4th Quarter, 11:58. It's the start of the fourth quarter, and the score is 59-58 in favor of San Antonio. I know I've already said it like three times, but the NBA is better now. No one wants to watch these muddled up scrums posing as basketball plays. It's why college basketball sucks. And if anyone tells you the NBA was better back in 1999, you have my permission to kick them in the shin twice.
10:47. Sprewell was really, really good for about five years. I forgot he was such a gifted scorer. I know I mentioned it at the beginning of this piece, but man, he's so tough to guard, inside and out. He's keeping New York in this game by himself. The lesson here, kids, is don't choke your head coach, because that's all you'll be remembered for one day.
7:47. Popovich gets plenty of praise, but it's not enough. The Knicks have started double-teaming Duncan on the block, and he's making the perfect pass out to guards who are then making the perfect pass to the wing who then make the perfect basketball decision. The narrative is always that Popovich selects the smartest players for his system, but maybe the narrative should be that Popovich selects players and then teaches them how to make the best basketball plays possible. I think the second one makes him a better coach.
6:30. Young Steve Kerr sighting as Sean Elliot sits with his fourth personal!
2:37. I think it's amazing that Duncan's free throw shooting has never been a big problem for the Spurs or a lingering story line. He's never been good at the line, but he's kept it just respectable enough to keep the media off his back. Plus he graduated from the Shaquille O'Neal school of "I make them when they count."
1:53. 77-76 New York. This game is an offensive cesspool of sadness.
0:47. Avery Johnson just hit a wide open long two from the near corner because Duncan made the perfect pass out of a double team to Sean Elliot, who kicked it over to the Little General before New York could reset. Because Spurs. 78-77 Spurs.
0:02. Van Gundy draws up a really good play. Sprewell fakes a screen at the top of the key and then dives to the hoop. Unfortunately he cuts too soon, and Elliot stays with him. Sprewell catches the inbound too deep and is stuck under the hoop. He's only able to shoot a desperation fade-away with Duncan and Elliot towering over him. Spurs win. But that's a genius play. If Sprewell waits half a second longer, Elliot comes off him to hedge on Allan Houston, and Sprewell gets a wide open layup to win the game.
This is one of the first Finals I remember clearly, and it's the beginning of the San Antonio dynasty that has changed the NBA over the last fifteen years. While it's not the most aesthetically pleasing basketball games to watch, it's interesting for its own reasons.
Monday, November 23, 2015
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
NBA Draft Recap
Early in the week, it looked like the NBA was going to be thrown into a whirlwind of chaotic trades during the draft. But when Mason Plumlee is the bombshell trade of the night, you know things ended up a little more bland than everyone was thinking. That's because the trade that would have set everything in motion never happened. If DeMarcus Cousins had ended up a Laker, players would've started moving back and forth across the NBA. But he didn't, and we ended up with a pretty boring draft night. Still, there were some highlights:
Karl-Anthony Towns went first, like expected. I'm not sure what to make of the Kentucky product. He could end up a special talent, he could be a Tyson Chandler clone, or he could end up an athletic big running around with no position. The idea is that in today's NBA, Towns can defend against smaller lineups and space the floor. And that's great in theory. What will be interesting is seeing if he can do that in the NBA. He'll take a while to develop, but he has high upside.
The Lakers surprised everyone by taking D'Angelo Russell. Leading up to the draft, all the talk was how LA was going to take Jahlil Okafor. Then, about 48 hours prior, word leaked that Russell was going to be the pick. Is this a sign that the shift to a wing-dominated NBA is complete? I don't know a lot about Russell, but he looks explosive from what I've seen. Learning from Kobe Bryant won't hurt, either.
Philly picked another big, giving them a surplus in the front court. Jahlil Okafor will step in and average 20 and 10 without hesitation, and I believe he'll win rookie of the year. The drafting of Okafor probably means either Nerlens Noel or Joel Embiid will be traded, but I don't think Philly is in a hurry to move either. They don't know what Embiid can do since he hasn't been able to get on the floor due to injury. I can't say which they should keep, because we haven't seen Embiid against NBA talent. I do think, however, that Okafor is the start of something for the Sixers. Whatever deficiencies he has on defense, his offensive skills can make up for. A few veterans and some shooters and Philly can challenge for a playoff spot in the East.
The New York Knicks picked Kris Porzingis. And their fans weren't happy. I don't blame them. Not because Porzingis will be bad. I don't know that. I think it's a bad move because they have Carmelo Anthony as the focus of their team, and they need to win now. Best case scenario, Porzingis is playing at an all-star level in five years. By then, Anthony will be 36 years old and close to retirement. You can't win a championship like that. Problems occur at any organization, basketball or otherwise, when they don't know who they are or what they want to be. Are the Knicks planning on being contenders in the five years? Then trade the pick or Porzingis for a player who can contribute right away. Are the Knicks planning on rebuilding? Then trade Anthony for a package of young players and picks and build for the future. Phil Jackson hasn't inspired confidence, and this pick didn't make sense to me.
Emmanuel Mudiay went to the Nuggets, which means Ty Lawson is on the move. Kenneth Faried will probably go, too. Just a good time to remind everyone that Denver hasn't made the playoffs since they fired George Karl the year he won Coach of the Year.
Nine teams passed on Justise Winslow, and they'll all regret it. I'm pissed that he ended up in Miami, because I hate Miami. I hope Dwyane Wade bails on them and ends up playing the rest of his career in Sacramento for six different coaches. Anyway, Winslow is my favorite player in this draft and at worst he'll be a solid role player on a championship team one day.
Everyone is down on Frank Kaminsky, but I think they'll be surprised by him. No, I don't think he'll ever make an all-star team, but he's more athletic than people think and he's smart on the court. He'll contribute to a playoff team one day, too, but probably not for Charlotte. Because they never go on deep playoff runs.
Myles Turner in, Roy Hibbert out in Indiana. Because Roy Hibbert got body snatched. Remember when everyone thought Hibbert was a defensive genius? That's long gone. Turner didn't impress me at Texas. He rarely stood out and I think he'll have to work hard to contribute to an NBA team.
Cameron Payne referred to himself in the third person, so I don't like his game.
Sam Dekker got drafted by the Rockets and then proceeded to mow his parents' yard. So that's nice. Maybe he doesn't know how much money he just made. Everyone keeps saying he's similar to Chandler Parsons, but I don't think so.
The Celtics drafted Marcus Thornton in the second round. I'm pretty sure there are already two Marcus Thorntons in the NBA. Is this the same guy getting drafted every few years? I want to see E:60 investigate this.
The Mavericks drafted the first Indian born player in the NBA so Mark Cuban could sell a crap ton of t-shirts in India. Or for basketball reasons. Whatever.
And that, ladies and gentleman, is how you turn an eagerly anticipated draft into a boring night of role calls by Adam Silver.
Karl-Anthony Towns went first, like expected. I'm not sure what to make of the Kentucky product. He could end up a special talent, he could be a Tyson Chandler clone, or he could end up an athletic big running around with no position. The idea is that in today's NBA, Towns can defend against smaller lineups and space the floor. And that's great in theory. What will be interesting is seeing if he can do that in the NBA. He'll take a while to develop, but he has high upside.
The Lakers surprised everyone by taking D'Angelo Russell. Leading up to the draft, all the talk was how LA was going to take Jahlil Okafor. Then, about 48 hours prior, word leaked that Russell was going to be the pick. Is this a sign that the shift to a wing-dominated NBA is complete? I don't know a lot about Russell, but he looks explosive from what I've seen. Learning from Kobe Bryant won't hurt, either.
Philly picked another big, giving them a surplus in the front court. Jahlil Okafor will step in and average 20 and 10 without hesitation, and I believe he'll win rookie of the year. The drafting of Okafor probably means either Nerlens Noel or Joel Embiid will be traded, but I don't think Philly is in a hurry to move either. They don't know what Embiid can do since he hasn't been able to get on the floor due to injury. I can't say which they should keep, because we haven't seen Embiid against NBA talent. I do think, however, that Okafor is the start of something for the Sixers. Whatever deficiencies he has on defense, his offensive skills can make up for. A few veterans and some shooters and Philly can challenge for a playoff spot in the East.
The New York Knicks picked Kris Porzingis. And their fans weren't happy. I don't blame them. Not because Porzingis will be bad. I don't know that. I think it's a bad move because they have Carmelo Anthony as the focus of their team, and they need to win now. Best case scenario, Porzingis is playing at an all-star level in five years. By then, Anthony will be 36 years old and close to retirement. You can't win a championship like that. Problems occur at any organization, basketball or otherwise, when they don't know who they are or what they want to be. Are the Knicks planning on being contenders in the five years? Then trade the pick or Porzingis for a player who can contribute right away. Are the Knicks planning on rebuilding? Then trade Anthony for a package of young players and picks and build for the future. Phil Jackson hasn't inspired confidence, and this pick didn't make sense to me.
Emmanuel Mudiay went to the Nuggets, which means Ty Lawson is on the move. Kenneth Faried will probably go, too. Just a good time to remind everyone that Denver hasn't made the playoffs since they fired George Karl the year he won Coach of the Year.
Nine teams passed on Justise Winslow, and they'll all regret it. I'm pissed that he ended up in Miami, because I hate Miami. I hope Dwyane Wade bails on them and ends up playing the rest of his career in Sacramento for six different coaches. Anyway, Winslow is my favorite player in this draft and at worst he'll be a solid role player on a championship team one day.
Everyone is down on Frank Kaminsky, but I think they'll be surprised by him. No, I don't think he'll ever make an all-star team, but he's more athletic than people think and he's smart on the court. He'll contribute to a playoff team one day, too, but probably not for Charlotte. Because they never go on deep playoff runs.
Myles Turner in, Roy Hibbert out in Indiana. Because Roy Hibbert got body snatched. Remember when everyone thought Hibbert was a defensive genius? That's long gone. Turner didn't impress me at Texas. He rarely stood out and I think he'll have to work hard to contribute to an NBA team.
Cameron Payne referred to himself in the third person, so I don't like his game.
Sam Dekker got drafted by the Rockets and then proceeded to mow his parents' yard. So that's nice. Maybe he doesn't know how much money he just made. Everyone keeps saying he's similar to Chandler Parsons, but I don't think so.
The Celtics drafted Marcus Thornton in the second round. I'm pretty sure there are already two Marcus Thorntons in the NBA. Is this the same guy getting drafted every few years? I want to see E:60 investigate this.
The Mavericks drafted the first Indian born player in the NBA so Mark Cuban could sell a crap ton of t-shirts in India. Or for basketball reasons. Whatever.
And that, ladies and gentleman, is how you turn an eagerly anticipated draft into a boring night of role calls by Adam Silver.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Thoughts on the Finals
--Cleveland looked so much bigger than Golden State. Not height-wise, but just bigger bodies. And it mattered. The Warriors' shooting helped even out the disparity, but with the physical nature of the series it gave the Cavs an advantage.
--As usual with young players, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have to be more consistent. Some will call that inconsistency the result of being a jump-shooting team, but I think it has more to do with their youth and inexperience. If they're as talented as I think they are, that will change.
--LeBron might be a machine sent from the future to destroy basketball. Making it to the Finals five years in a row is exhausting enough, but doing it with this Cavs team is crazy. That's not a knock on the guys surrounding him. They played their hearts out and did everything they could. But the NBA has become an offensive league, and no one else on Cleveland is capable of creating their own offense. The way he put this team on his back and willed it into contention is amazing.
--Tristan Thompson showed everyone that he's going to be a grit and grind guy for the next five to seven years in this league. Championship teams need players like him to win in June.
--I'm really impressed with what Steve Kerr did with this Golden State team. He convinced an all-star to come off the bench and barely played the highest paid player on the roster. When he decided to go small in game four, Andrew Bogut read the writing on the wall and realized he probably wouldn't play much the rest of the series. All of that, and no chemistry problems. No complaining, no whining. Nothing but sterling play from a cohesive team. It's incredible he was able to get guys to buy in like that, especially in the NBA.
--Staying with Steve Kerr, I'm also impressed with his tactical prowess. Inserting Andre Iguadola into the starting lineup was a bold move, but most people thought it was a good idea. Starting Iguadola over Andrew Bogut, however, was ballsy beyond belief. He changed the shape of his 67 win team with only four games left in the season. That's not something most rookie coaches would do. So let's give Kerr the props he deserves.
--This series was a waste of LeBron James. No one was expecting a lot out of his surrounding cast, other than being professional and contributing. And for the most part, LeBron's teammates did that. They're just limited, and it showed tremendously. It was a shame to watch LeBron put up historic numbers, all for nothing. Injuries played a big part of it, and a lot of Cavaliers played above what they usually do. But still. I wish LeBron had a little more help.
--I loved Andre Iguadola winning the MVP. He did the big things, the little things, and everything in between to help the Warriors win. I loved it.
--To me, this wasn't a great Finals, but it wasn't terrible either. I enjoyed watching the Warriors do their thing, and I was fascinated by how LeBron James controlled games. It was a high-rated Finals, so people seemed to like it. Maybe we'll get the same matchup next year.
--As usual with young players, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have to be more consistent. Some will call that inconsistency the result of being a jump-shooting team, but I think it has more to do with their youth and inexperience. If they're as talented as I think they are, that will change.
--LeBron might be a machine sent from the future to destroy basketball. Making it to the Finals five years in a row is exhausting enough, but doing it with this Cavs team is crazy. That's not a knock on the guys surrounding him. They played their hearts out and did everything they could. But the NBA has become an offensive league, and no one else on Cleveland is capable of creating their own offense. The way he put this team on his back and willed it into contention is amazing.
--Tristan Thompson showed everyone that he's going to be a grit and grind guy for the next five to seven years in this league. Championship teams need players like him to win in June.
--I'm really impressed with what Steve Kerr did with this Golden State team. He convinced an all-star to come off the bench and barely played the highest paid player on the roster. When he decided to go small in game four, Andrew Bogut read the writing on the wall and realized he probably wouldn't play much the rest of the series. All of that, and no chemistry problems. No complaining, no whining. Nothing but sterling play from a cohesive team. It's incredible he was able to get guys to buy in like that, especially in the NBA.
--Staying with Steve Kerr, I'm also impressed with his tactical prowess. Inserting Andre Iguadola into the starting lineup was a bold move, but most people thought it was a good idea. Starting Iguadola over Andrew Bogut, however, was ballsy beyond belief. He changed the shape of his 67 win team with only four games left in the season. That's not something most rookie coaches would do. So let's give Kerr the props he deserves.
--This series was a waste of LeBron James. No one was expecting a lot out of his surrounding cast, other than being professional and contributing. And for the most part, LeBron's teammates did that. They're just limited, and it showed tremendously. It was a shame to watch LeBron put up historic numbers, all for nothing. Injuries played a big part of it, and a lot of Cavaliers played above what they usually do. But still. I wish LeBron had a little more help.
--I loved Andre Iguadola winning the MVP. He did the big things, the little things, and everything in between to help the Warriors win. I loved it.
--To me, this wasn't a great Finals, but it wasn't terrible either. I enjoyed watching the Warriors do their thing, and I was fascinated by how LeBron James controlled games. It was a high-rated Finals, so people seemed to like it. Maybe we'll get the same matchup next year.
Monday, April 20, 2015
Who Are the Contenders?
A while ago, I wrote that over the last fifteen years, every NBA champion ranked in the top ten in field goal percentage allowed. Read it here. A quick recap: a team isn't guaranteed to win if they're ranked in the top ten, but history shows they won't win a championship if they're not.
The top ten in field goal percentage allowed this year:
1. Golden State
2. Washington
3. Indiana
4. Chicago
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. Portland
8. Charlotte
9. Oklahoma City
10. Memphis
OKC, Indiana, and Charlotte didn't make the playoffs. Milwaukee is just too young to be taken serious. Portland looks too banged up. That leaves us with five teams, plus a few notable omissions.
Washington and Memphis. At some point during the season, these two teams looked like championship contenders. Lately, though, they've been sputtering and picking them to make the Finals would be ludicrous. I can see the Grizzlies getting on a roll and making it. The Wizards--not so much.
Chicago. The Bulls are always in the mix for a championship, but their offense is sporadic. As always, it depends on Derrick Rose getting back to MVP form, something we haven't seen since 2011. Joakim Noah is banged up as well, and he is more important to this team than anyone else. I think Chicago could win the Finals, but a lot of things would have to break their way.
Atlanta. The argument is that they don't have a star to take over in a playoff game, and that's true. But San Antonio has made two consecutive Finals without a dominant superstar, and I think Atlanta has a chance to do something similar. They move the ball incredibly well, and play swarming defense. I picked them to lose to Golden State in the Finals.
Golden State. Everyone thinks this team is just an offensive juggernaut, but they play great defense, too. In fact, out of all the teams in the top ten, the Warriors are probably the most balanced. Draymond Green has a lot to do with that defense, but the entire team is built to switch on picks, which helps them disrupt teams that rotate the ball well, like the Hawks and the Spurs. Golden State is for real.
There are three teams just outside the top ten--Houston, San Antonio, and the Los Angeles Clippers. In 2001, the Lakers won a championship after ranking eleventh in field goal percentage allowed. That ranking might have to do with an injury plagued season, which is something the Spurs are familiar with this year.
Out of those three teams, I think the Spurs are the only one with a chance to compete for the Finals. The Clippers lack depth, and Houston doesn't have enough around James Harden. San Antonio, if healthy, can make a run.
Then there are the Cleveland Cavaliers. They ranked 20th in field goal percentage allowed. But they also made some trades late in the year that improved them defensively. So we don't have a full sample for our statistic. But I watched them throughout the year, and they didn't rise significantly after the trades for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert. If the Cavs were anywhere close to the top ten, I'd probably pick them for the Finals. But being ranked 20th, I can't. They would be making some pretty incredible history if they won.
The top ten in field goal percentage allowed this year:
1. Golden State
2. Washington
3. Indiana
4. Chicago
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. Portland
8. Charlotte
9. Oklahoma City
10. Memphis
OKC, Indiana, and Charlotte didn't make the playoffs. Milwaukee is just too young to be taken serious. Portland looks too banged up. That leaves us with five teams, plus a few notable omissions.
Washington and Memphis. At some point during the season, these two teams looked like championship contenders. Lately, though, they've been sputtering and picking them to make the Finals would be ludicrous. I can see the Grizzlies getting on a roll and making it. The Wizards--not so much.
Chicago. The Bulls are always in the mix for a championship, but their offense is sporadic. As always, it depends on Derrick Rose getting back to MVP form, something we haven't seen since 2011. Joakim Noah is banged up as well, and he is more important to this team than anyone else. I think Chicago could win the Finals, but a lot of things would have to break their way.
Atlanta. The argument is that they don't have a star to take over in a playoff game, and that's true. But San Antonio has made two consecutive Finals without a dominant superstar, and I think Atlanta has a chance to do something similar. They move the ball incredibly well, and play swarming defense. I picked them to lose to Golden State in the Finals.
Golden State. Everyone thinks this team is just an offensive juggernaut, but they play great defense, too. In fact, out of all the teams in the top ten, the Warriors are probably the most balanced. Draymond Green has a lot to do with that defense, but the entire team is built to switch on picks, which helps them disrupt teams that rotate the ball well, like the Hawks and the Spurs. Golden State is for real.
There are three teams just outside the top ten--Houston, San Antonio, and the Los Angeles Clippers. In 2001, the Lakers won a championship after ranking eleventh in field goal percentage allowed. That ranking might have to do with an injury plagued season, which is something the Spurs are familiar with this year.
Out of those three teams, I think the Spurs are the only one with a chance to compete for the Finals. The Clippers lack depth, and Houston doesn't have enough around James Harden. San Antonio, if healthy, can make a run.
Then there are the Cleveland Cavaliers. They ranked 20th in field goal percentage allowed. But they also made some trades late in the year that improved them defensively. So we don't have a full sample for our statistic. But I watched them throughout the year, and they didn't rise significantly after the trades for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert. If the Cavs were anywhere close to the top ten, I'd probably pick them for the Finals. But being ranked 20th, I can't. They would be making some pretty incredible history if they won.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
2015 Playoff Predictions
Every year, I can spot the contenders in the NBA. It's tough, but if you watch enough basketball, they start to stand out. Some fans get fooled, because more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs. The trick is to see the little things that make champions stand out, the tiny details that separate the winners from the losers.
Earlier this year, I thought there were a lot of teams in the Western Conference that could win the championship. But now, I think it's down to just a few. That's what happens over the course of 82 games. The NBA season is long and grueling. The team that eventually wins a ring has endured bumps, fake media fights, injuries, and four games in five nights stretches. They've put in hard work and had a little luck along the way. Which teams fit that profile this year? Here's my playoff predictions:
Eastern Conference
1st Round
--Hawks over Nets. This series will be a mercy killing. If Brooklyn wins a game, it'd be a successful playoff run.
--Cavs over Celtics. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but he can't overcome the talent deficit between these two teams. Unfortunately, this series won't be like those great Celtics-Cavs battles of 2008-2010.
--Bulls over Bucks. I love the team Milwaukee has built, and I like what Jason Kidd is doing with them, but the Bucks are just too young to contend with this talented Chicago team. The Bulls are banged up, but they should handle Milwaukee easily.
--Wizards over Raptors. Both of these teams have struggled over the last month of the season, but I believe in the talent of Washington. John Wall has taken a leap, and he'll be the difference in the series.
2nd Round
--Hawks over Wizards. Atlanta will win this, but Washington will make it interesting. The Hawks defense will shut down Wall and Bradley Beal isn't ready to carry an offense yet.
--Cavs over Bulls. If we're lucky, this one will go seven games. This was the Eastern Conference Finals we thought we would get. Unfortunately, I don't think Chicago is healthy enough to unseat the Cavs. Joakim Noah is beat up and you never know what you're going to get out of Derrick Rose. Cleveland, on the other hand, has two superstars in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as a better supporting cast. Again, talent wins out.
Eastern Conference Championship
--Hawks over Cavs. I don't think Cleveland plays good enough defense to make it past Atlanta. I could be wrong, because LeBron and Kyrie are so overwhelming. But Cleveland is ranked 20th in field goal percentage defense, and teams usually don't make the Finals ranked outside the top ten. I think Atlanta will find a way to frustrate the Cavs' superstars and the rest of the cast won't be able to carry the load. The Hawks ball movement will create easy scores and propel Atlanta to the Finals.
Western Conference
1st Round
--Warriors over Pelicans. This will probably be a sweep, unless Anthony Davis wins a game on his own.
--Mavs over Rockets. I might be letting my home team bias take over my brain right now, but I think Dallas can steal this one. The Rockets rely too heavily on James Harden, and the sorcerer that is Rick Carlisle will take him away, or at least contain him. Dwight Howard will have to have a monster series for Houston to advance.
--Spurs over Clippers. I think San Antonio's depth wins out here. Both teams are hot, but let's not forget, this Clippers team hasn't had much playoff success. Meanwhile, San Antonio has done nothing but succeed in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard has finally regained his form and has become a monster on both sides of the ball.
--Grizzlies over Blazers. Portland looked so good at the beginning of the year, but injuries have derailed their season. Memphis isn't playing well lately, but they've got more than enough enough talent to handle this weakened Blazers team.
2nd Round
--Warriors over Grizzlies. This series might get interesting, because Memphis has the size to bother Golden State. But I think the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will cause problems, and the Warriors will advance to the Western Conference Finals.
--Spurs over Mavs. I don't think we'll get seven games again, but you never know with Carlisle the Gray. Dallas just has less talent than San Antonio, and the parts on their team don't fit right for some reason.
Western Conference Finals
--Warriors over Spurs. I hesitated with this pick, because the Warriors haven't accomplished anything. But right now, they look like a historic team. Even though it wouldn't surprise me if the Spurs won this, Golden State has looked special all year. I think this is a toss up, but I'm going with the team with the +10 point differential.
NBA Finals
--Warriors over Hawks. For casual fans, this won't be great. But for NBA die-hards, the ball movement in this series will be like chocolate cake wrapped in bacon mixed with fireworks. I don't know if a coach has ever won a championship in his first year with the team, but Steve Kerr might pull off that rare feat.
The bottom line is that Golden State isn't just the best regular season team this year. They're one of the best teams in the past twenty years. They're the easy pick, and that's who I'm going with in 2015.
Earlier this year, I thought there were a lot of teams in the Western Conference that could win the championship. But now, I think it's down to just a few. That's what happens over the course of 82 games. The NBA season is long and grueling. The team that eventually wins a ring has endured bumps, fake media fights, injuries, and four games in five nights stretches. They've put in hard work and had a little luck along the way. Which teams fit that profile this year? Here's my playoff predictions:
Eastern Conference
1st Round
--Hawks over Nets. This series will be a mercy killing. If Brooklyn wins a game, it'd be a successful playoff run.
--Cavs over Celtics. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but he can't overcome the talent deficit between these two teams. Unfortunately, this series won't be like those great Celtics-Cavs battles of 2008-2010.
--Bulls over Bucks. I love the team Milwaukee has built, and I like what Jason Kidd is doing with them, but the Bucks are just too young to contend with this talented Chicago team. The Bulls are banged up, but they should handle Milwaukee easily.
--Wizards over Raptors. Both of these teams have struggled over the last month of the season, but I believe in the talent of Washington. John Wall has taken a leap, and he'll be the difference in the series.
2nd Round
--Hawks over Wizards. Atlanta will win this, but Washington will make it interesting. The Hawks defense will shut down Wall and Bradley Beal isn't ready to carry an offense yet.
--Cavs over Bulls. If we're lucky, this one will go seven games. This was the Eastern Conference Finals we thought we would get. Unfortunately, I don't think Chicago is healthy enough to unseat the Cavs. Joakim Noah is beat up and you never know what you're going to get out of Derrick Rose. Cleveland, on the other hand, has two superstars in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as a better supporting cast. Again, talent wins out.
Eastern Conference Championship
--Hawks over Cavs. I don't think Cleveland plays good enough defense to make it past Atlanta. I could be wrong, because LeBron and Kyrie are so overwhelming. But Cleveland is ranked 20th in field goal percentage defense, and teams usually don't make the Finals ranked outside the top ten. I think Atlanta will find a way to frustrate the Cavs' superstars and the rest of the cast won't be able to carry the load. The Hawks ball movement will create easy scores and propel Atlanta to the Finals.
Western Conference
1st Round
--Warriors over Pelicans. This will probably be a sweep, unless Anthony Davis wins a game on his own.
--Mavs over Rockets. I might be letting my home team bias take over my brain right now, but I think Dallas can steal this one. The Rockets rely too heavily on James Harden, and the sorcerer that is Rick Carlisle will take him away, or at least contain him. Dwight Howard will have to have a monster series for Houston to advance.
--Spurs over Clippers. I think San Antonio's depth wins out here. Both teams are hot, but let's not forget, this Clippers team hasn't had much playoff success. Meanwhile, San Antonio has done nothing but succeed in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard has finally regained his form and has become a monster on both sides of the ball.
--Grizzlies over Blazers. Portland looked so good at the beginning of the year, but injuries have derailed their season. Memphis isn't playing well lately, but they've got more than enough enough talent to handle this weakened Blazers team.
2nd Round
--Warriors over Grizzlies. This series might get interesting, because Memphis has the size to bother Golden State. But I think the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will cause problems, and the Warriors will advance to the Western Conference Finals.
--Spurs over Mavs. I don't think we'll get seven games again, but you never know with Carlisle the Gray. Dallas just has less talent than San Antonio, and the parts on their team don't fit right for some reason.
Western Conference Finals
--Warriors over Spurs. I hesitated with this pick, because the Warriors haven't accomplished anything. But right now, they look like a historic team. Even though it wouldn't surprise me if the Spurs won this, Golden State has looked special all year. I think this is a toss up, but I'm going with the team with the +10 point differential.
NBA Finals
--Warriors over Hawks. For casual fans, this won't be great. But for NBA die-hards, the ball movement in this series will be like chocolate cake wrapped in bacon mixed with fireworks. I don't know if a coach has ever won a championship in his first year with the team, but Steve Kerr might pull off that rare feat.
The bottom line is that Golden State isn't just the best regular season team this year. They're one of the best teams in the past twenty years. They're the easy pick, and that's who I'm going with in 2015.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Can You Build a Championship Team Around a Small Forward?
This isn't much of an article. It's more of an observation or a thought exercise.
I don't think you can win an NBA championship with a small forward as the center of your team.
I'm looking back over the last thirty years, going back to 1980, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson first appeared in the league. I'm not going to consider before that, because the NBA is a completely different landscape now. And to be honest, I haven't seen a lot of pre-1980 games.
So going chronologically, we can forget about all the Lakers and Celtics championship teams of the 80s. That Lakers dynasty was powered by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabar, a point guard and a center. Larry Bird was a power forward. I'm not going to argue about it. Bird was one of the first stretch fours, and no one likes to talk about it.
The Bad Boys Pistons won through the guard play of Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Erase the six Bulls championships. Michael Jordan, shooting guard, was driving that bus. Same with the Houston Rockets who won back to back championships through center Hakeem Olajuwan. The Spurs first won through David Robinson and Tim Duncan, then through Duncan and Tony Parker. The 2000-2002 Lakers leaned on the talent of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
The 2004 Detroit Pistons were one of the true complete teams, but you could say Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups were the most important players on that team. The 2006 Miami Heat rode Dwyane Wade and Bennett Salvatore to the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Lakers came back again with Kobe in 2009 and 2010. And the Dallas Mavericks came out of nowhere to win the Finals in 2011 behind the shooting of Dirk Nowitzki, a power forward.
That's a pretty good sampling, but I have left a few championship teams out. Let's look at those exceptions:
1983 Philadelphia 76ers--Somebody might want to give them as an example of a team built around a small forward that won a championship. After all, Julius Erving was one of the all-time great three's to ever play in the NBA. But this team didn't win because of Dr. J. It won because the Sixers traded for Moses Malone, along with his rebounding and big booty. Erving was a key piece of that Philly team, but Malone won the ring for them. Case closed.
2008 Boston Celtics--This team is kind of tricky. After all, Paul Pierce was the man on this team, and he's a small forward. But Pierce's Celtics kind of prove my point. Pierce consistently took his team deep into the playoffs (because he's a no-doubt hall of famer), but couldn't get them over the top until Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen showed up. Not because Pierce wasn't good enough. Because you can't win a championship by building around a small forward. Like it or not, a shooting guard and a power forward pushed those Celtics into championship territory, even if it was Pierce who set it up.
2012-2013 Miami Heat--You're probably thinking this is where my theory falls apart. LeBron James is a small forward, and he's won two championships and been to five Finals. He should be proof that you can win a championship with your team built around a small forward.
My rebuttal? LeBron James is a freak of nature. He's not really a small forward. I'd say he's a point forward. He's positionless, much like Charles Barkley and Magic Johnson. So I don't think he proves me wrong. He does so many things on a basketball court, to box him in to the small forward position seems wrong. Enough said.
I don't have any good reasons why a team built around a small forward can't win a championship. But they often fall short. Think of all of Carmelo Anthony's teams, or when the Bulls and Trailblazers built around Scottie Pippen. Maybe it's the versatility of the position. Small forwards are often asked to guard three positions, as well as be a slashing scorer. That's a lot to ask of one person, especially over 82 regular season games and a punishing post-season. It's the only thing I can think of to explain why small forwards don't lead teams to championships.
What do you think?
I don't think you can win an NBA championship with a small forward as the center of your team.
I'm looking back over the last thirty years, going back to 1980, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson first appeared in the league. I'm not going to consider before that, because the NBA is a completely different landscape now. And to be honest, I haven't seen a lot of pre-1980 games.
So going chronologically, we can forget about all the Lakers and Celtics championship teams of the 80s. That Lakers dynasty was powered by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabar, a point guard and a center. Larry Bird was a power forward. I'm not going to argue about it. Bird was one of the first stretch fours, and no one likes to talk about it.
The Bad Boys Pistons won through the guard play of Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Erase the six Bulls championships. Michael Jordan, shooting guard, was driving that bus. Same with the Houston Rockets who won back to back championships through center Hakeem Olajuwan. The Spurs first won through David Robinson and Tim Duncan, then through Duncan and Tony Parker. The 2000-2002 Lakers leaned on the talent of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
The 2004 Detroit Pistons were one of the true complete teams, but you could say Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups were the most important players on that team. The 2006 Miami Heat rode Dwyane Wade and Bennett Salvatore to the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Lakers came back again with Kobe in 2009 and 2010. And the Dallas Mavericks came out of nowhere to win the Finals in 2011 behind the shooting of Dirk Nowitzki, a power forward.
That's a pretty good sampling, but I have left a few championship teams out. Let's look at those exceptions:
1983 Philadelphia 76ers--Somebody might want to give them as an example of a team built around a small forward that won a championship. After all, Julius Erving was one of the all-time great three's to ever play in the NBA. But this team didn't win because of Dr. J. It won because the Sixers traded for Moses Malone, along with his rebounding and big booty. Erving was a key piece of that Philly team, but Malone won the ring for them. Case closed.
2008 Boston Celtics--This team is kind of tricky. After all, Paul Pierce was the man on this team, and he's a small forward. But Pierce's Celtics kind of prove my point. Pierce consistently took his team deep into the playoffs (because he's a no-doubt hall of famer), but couldn't get them over the top until Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen showed up. Not because Pierce wasn't good enough. Because you can't win a championship by building around a small forward. Like it or not, a shooting guard and a power forward pushed those Celtics into championship territory, even if it was Pierce who set it up.
2012-2013 Miami Heat--You're probably thinking this is where my theory falls apart. LeBron James is a small forward, and he's won two championships and been to five Finals. He should be proof that you can win a championship with your team built around a small forward.
My rebuttal? LeBron James is a freak of nature. He's not really a small forward. I'd say he's a point forward. He's positionless, much like Charles Barkley and Magic Johnson. So I don't think he proves me wrong. He does so many things on a basketball court, to box him in to the small forward position seems wrong. Enough said.
I don't have any good reasons why a team built around a small forward can't win a championship. But they often fall short. Think of all of Carmelo Anthony's teams, or when the Bulls and Trailblazers built around Scottie Pippen. Maybe it's the versatility of the position. Small forwards are often asked to guard three positions, as well as be a slashing scorer. That's a lot to ask of one person, especially over 82 regular season games and a punishing post-season. It's the only thing I can think of to explain why small forwards don't lead teams to championships.
What do you think?
Sunday, March 29, 2015
The Crowded MVP Race
I haven't posted anything since December. Early December. So I have a lot on my mind. Kevin Love and LeBron. Steve Nash retiring. Oklahoma City pissing off the basketball gods. Nikola Mirotic. Mitch McGary and his sideline antics. So much NBA stuff.
I'll skip the excuses and get right into one of the most interesting MVP races we've ever seen. Let's start with the candidates, in no particular order:
Steph Curry
LeBron James
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Chris Paul
There's probably at least one name on that list you weren't expecting to see, if not two. I'll explain why each deserves the MVP, but I can tell you right now I can't pick who's going to win. I can see it going two or three different ways. What I will do is break them down from least likely to win to most likely. Here we go.
Chris Paul--CP3 is quietly having a great year. No one is giving him a chance to win the MVP, and rightfully so. Paul did kind of cruise through the first couple of months of the regular season, though you can't blame him. At this point in his career, all that matters in playoff success, and he's got that surgically repaired knee to think about.
But when Blake Griffin went down, Paul stepped up his game. He put a thin Clippers roster on his back and kept them humming along. No one is talking about this enough. When Griffin developed some sort of mutant infection in his elbow, Los Angeles was in the middle of a nine game road trip and had just dropped five of six. Chris Paul puffed his chest out, shook his head and refused to let them go down in flames. In the next seven games, the Clippers beat Dallas, Memphis, Houston, and San Antonio. All because Paul saw what was going on, and did what he had to do.
Up until Griffin's injury, Paul was averaging about 17 points a game. Since then, he's averaging 22 and shooting fifty percent. He's also averaging 11 assists per game and plays defense like a maniac. Deandre Jordan has helped keep this Clipper's ship afloat, but make no mistake--Chris Paul is still the captain.
Anthony Davis--We've known for a couple years that Davis was going to be a force in the league, and this year we're finally starting to see what we've been waiting for. The Brow's stat line for March? 28 points, 11 rebounds, four blocks, and three assists per game. He's got the Pelicans close to a playoff spot with almost no help. Who's the best player beside him? Omer Asik? Alexis Ajinca?
We all know Davis isn't going to win the MVP. But he deserves to be mentioned here, if only because we're getting to see a glimpse of the future. What he's doing in New Orleans is incredible. And in the next ten years, he'll get a couple of Podoloff trophies. Just not yet.
LeBron James--Here's the problem: we've become so accustomed to LeBron's greatness that we ignore his MVP numbers every year. He makes excellence look ordinary, and he loses MVP votes because of it. LeBron knows he's held to a different standard and pretends like it doesn't bother him. But it does, and it should.
Yes, his numbers are down this year. A little. But he's still averaging 25/5/7, just off his career numbers of 27/7/6. His assists are up, though, which shows he's trying to get his teammates involved and teach this young Cavaliers team how to win. And we can't forget, LeBron has been to four Finals in a row. That's almost like playing an extra season. At some point he's going to wear down, if he's not bionic. He's not, which is why he needed a two week break early this season. Voters will count that against him, along with the usual stuff mentioned above.
Just don't forget that we're watching one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Appreciate it while you can.
Russell Westbrook--Forget about the triple-doubles, and the gaudy scoring numbers. The statistics are crazy, but they're not what makes Westbrook's season special. What he's doing is incredible, and it's for his team. He came back earlier than expected after Oklahoma City started out 3-12 and has been dragging them to the playoffs ever since. Durant has been in and out of the lineup all year (and is now out until next season). The rest of the team has been nicked up, underdeveloped, and shuffled because of trades or benching.
The one constant has been Russell Westbrook ripping through the league like a buzz saw. Nothing has been able to stop him. Not even a broken face. He plays every game like it's his last, and that's not even a cliche. I've never seen someone play as hard as Westbrook has this year. I watch every Thunder game I can just to see him play, and I don't know if there's a bigger compliment to a basketball player than that. I'm just worried he'll spontaneously combust at any moment.
The problem is that Oklahoma City is just barely holding onto a playoff spot, and Westbrook has missed fifteen games this season. That won't help him, just like LeBron's mini-vacation doesn't help him. But the biggest reason Westbrook won't win is because the last two guys on this list are having special seasons.
James Harden--I was watching the Rockets the other day and one of the announcer proclaimed "We knew Harden was good, but we weren't sure he was going to be this good." Well, I think that's crap. I knew Harden was a franchise player, and I'm not even close to a professional basketball scout. Not only can he score at will, but he distributes the ball easily, making his teammates better. That's what you want from a cornerstone player.
That and defense. Last year, Harden was maligned all over the internet for his defense. Vines and memes were circulated, making a washing machine look like a defensive upgrade over Harden. But to his credit, he's put in the effort to become a more complete player and it shows. He still has room to grow, but you can't mock him anymore.
And what he has done in Houston is just short of amazing. Name the next best player on the roster after Harden. Dwight Howard? He's missed most of the season. Undersized Terrence Jones? Josh Smith, who Detroit paid to go away? Trevor Ariza not in a contract year? Corey Brewer?
James Harden has definitely done the most with the least help on his roster. For that, he deserves a lot of MVP votes. But...
Steph Curry--Historically speaking, the best player on a great team wins the MVP. And the Warriors are heading for an all-time season with at least 67 wins. And while there's no denying that Curry's surrounding cast is much more talented than Harden's or Westbrook's, he's the motor that makes this team go.
I didn't see this coming. I knew Curry was a talented shooter and could score, but I was always worried about his ankles. Don't forget, there was serious question about whether those ankles could hold up to an NBA season, much less an NBA career. But with the injury trouble behind him, Curry has turned into a perennial all-star and a complete point guard.
It's the shooting though that is the most amazing. Can you think of anything more terrifying than Curry lining up for a potential game winning shot against your team in an important game? Conversely, if Curry is on your favorite team and he's shooting for the win, you've got feel like it's going in more often than not.
I've seen Curry hit some ridiculous shots this year, some that made me cringe before they went in. I don't know if he's just having one insane season or if he's going to do this for the next ten years. I'm hoping for a decade of transcendent shooting. Curry this season is the reason why we watch sports. We hope to see something new, something we've never seen before, something that leaves us shaking our heads in disbelief. Curry does that once a week. For me, that's reason enough for him to be the MVP.
All these guys could win and I'd be okay with it. Personally, I'd choose Westbrook or LeBron. One for treating every game like a target he was hired to assassinate, the other for doing a pretty good impersonation of a machine that was made to go through four straight Finals. But I understand that Harden or Curry will probably win, and they'll deserve it.
I watch basketball to be entertained, and all these guys are doing a great job of entertaining me. So for me, it's hard to go wrong with the MVP vote.
I'll skip the excuses and get right into one of the most interesting MVP races we've ever seen. Let's start with the candidates, in no particular order:
Steph Curry
LeBron James
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Chris Paul
There's probably at least one name on that list you weren't expecting to see, if not two. I'll explain why each deserves the MVP, but I can tell you right now I can't pick who's going to win. I can see it going two or three different ways. What I will do is break them down from least likely to win to most likely. Here we go.
Chris Paul--CP3 is quietly having a great year. No one is giving him a chance to win the MVP, and rightfully so. Paul did kind of cruise through the first couple of months of the regular season, though you can't blame him. At this point in his career, all that matters in playoff success, and he's got that surgically repaired knee to think about.
But when Blake Griffin went down, Paul stepped up his game. He put a thin Clippers roster on his back and kept them humming along. No one is talking about this enough. When Griffin developed some sort of mutant infection in his elbow, Los Angeles was in the middle of a nine game road trip and had just dropped five of six. Chris Paul puffed his chest out, shook his head and refused to let them go down in flames. In the next seven games, the Clippers beat Dallas, Memphis, Houston, and San Antonio. All because Paul saw what was going on, and did what he had to do.
Up until Griffin's injury, Paul was averaging about 17 points a game. Since then, he's averaging 22 and shooting fifty percent. He's also averaging 11 assists per game and plays defense like a maniac. Deandre Jordan has helped keep this Clipper's ship afloat, but make no mistake--Chris Paul is still the captain.
Anthony Davis--We've known for a couple years that Davis was going to be a force in the league, and this year we're finally starting to see what we've been waiting for. The Brow's stat line for March? 28 points, 11 rebounds, four blocks, and three assists per game. He's got the Pelicans close to a playoff spot with almost no help. Who's the best player beside him? Omer Asik? Alexis Ajinca?
We all know Davis isn't going to win the MVP. But he deserves to be mentioned here, if only because we're getting to see a glimpse of the future. What he's doing in New Orleans is incredible. And in the next ten years, he'll get a couple of Podoloff trophies. Just not yet.
LeBron James--Here's the problem: we've become so accustomed to LeBron's greatness that we ignore his MVP numbers every year. He makes excellence look ordinary, and he loses MVP votes because of it. LeBron knows he's held to a different standard and pretends like it doesn't bother him. But it does, and it should.
Yes, his numbers are down this year. A little. But he's still averaging 25/5/7, just off his career numbers of 27/7/6. His assists are up, though, which shows he's trying to get his teammates involved and teach this young Cavaliers team how to win. And we can't forget, LeBron has been to four Finals in a row. That's almost like playing an extra season. At some point he's going to wear down, if he's not bionic. He's not, which is why he needed a two week break early this season. Voters will count that against him, along with the usual stuff mentioned above.
Just don't forget that we're watching one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Appreciate it while you can.
Russell Westbrook--Forget about the triple-doubles, and the gaudy scoring numbers. The statistics are crazy, but they're not what makes Westbrook's season special. What he's doing is incredible, and it's for his team. He came back earlier than expected after Oklahoma City started out 3-12 and has been dragging them to the playoffs ever since. Durant has been in and out of the lineup all year (and is now out until next season). The rest of the team has been nicked up, underdeveloped, and shuffled because of trades or benching.
The one constant has been Russell Westbrook ripping through the league like a buzz saw. Nothing has been able to stop him. Not even a broken face. He plays every game like it's his last, and that's not even a cliche. I've never seen someone play as hard as Westbrook has this year. I watch every Thunder game I can just to see him play, and I don't know if there's a bigger compliment to a basketball player than that. I'm just worried he'll spontaneously combust at any moment.
The problem is that Oklahoma City is just barely holding onto a playoff spot, and Westbrook has missed fifteen games this season. That won't help him, just like LeBron's mini-vacation doesn't help him. But the biggest reason Westbrook won't win is because the last two guys on this list are having special seasons.
James Harden--I was watching the Rockets the other day and one of the announcer proclaimed "We knew Harden was good, but we weren't sure he was going to be this good." Well, I think that's crap. I knew Harden was a franchise player, and I'm not even close to a professional basketball scout. Not only can he score at will, but he distributes the ball easily, making his teammates better. That's what you want from a cornerstone player.
That and defense. Last year, Harden was maligned all over the internet for his defense. Vines and memes were circulated, making a washing machine look like a defensive upgrade over Harden. But to his credit, he's put in the effort to become a more complete player and it shows. He still has room to grow, but you can't mock him anymore.
And what he has done in Houston is just short of amazing. Name the next best player on the roster after Harden. Dwight Howard? He's missed most of the season. Undersized Terrence Jones? Josh Smith, who Detroit paid to go away? Trevor Ariza not in a contract year? Corey Brewer?
James Harden has definitely done the most with the least help on his roster. For that, he deserves a lot of MVP votes. But...
Steph Curry--Historically speaking, the best player on a great team wins the MVP. And the Warriors are heading for an all-time season with at least 67 wins. And while there's no denying that Curry's surrounding cast is much more talented than Harden's or Westbrook's, he's the motor that makes this team go.
I didn't see this coming. I knew Curry was a talented shooter and could score, but I was always worried about his ankles. Don't forget, there was serious question about whether those ankles could hold up to an NBA season, much less an NBA career. But with the injury trouble behind him, Curry has turned into a perennial all-star and a complete point guard.
It's the shooting though that is the most amazing. Can you think of anything more terrifying than Curry lining up for a potential game winning shot against your team in an important game? Conversely, if Curry is on your favorite team and he's shooting for the win, you've got feel like it's going in more often than not.
I've seen Curry hit some ridiculous shots this year, some that made me cringe before they went in. I don't know if he's just having one insane season or if he's going to do this for the next ten years. I'm hoping for a decade of transcendent shooting. Curry this season is the reason why we watch sports. We hope to see something new, something we've never seen before, something that leaves us shaking our heads in disbelief. Curry does that once a week. For me, that's reason enough for him to be the MVP.
All these guys could win and I'd be okay with it. Personally, I'd choose Westbrook or LeBron. One for treating every game like a target he was hired to assassinate, the other for doing a pretty good impersonation of a machine that was made to go through four straight Finals. But I understand that Harden or Curry will probably win, and they'll deserve it.
I watch basketball to be entertained, and all these guys are doing a great job of entertaining me. So for me, it's hard to go wrong with the MVP vote.
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