A while ago, I wrote that over the last fifteen years, every NBA champion ranked in the top ten in field goal percentage allowed. Read it here. A quick recap: a team isn't guaranteed to win if they're ranked in the top ten, but history shows they won't win a championship if they're not.
The top ten in field goal percentage allowed this year:
1. Golden State
2. Washington
3. Indiana
4. Chicago
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. Portland
8. Charlotte
9. Oklahoma City
10. Memphis
OKC, Indiana, and Charlotte didn't make the playoffs. Milwaukee is just too young to be taken serious. Portland looks too banged up. That leaves us with five teams, plus a few notable omissions.
Washington and Memphis. At some point during the season, these two teams looked like championship contenders. Lately, though, they've been sputtering and picking them to make the Finals would be ludicrous. I can see the Grizzlies getting on a roll and making it. The Wizards--not so much.
Chicago. The Bulls are always in the mix for a championship, but their offense is sporadic. As always, it depends on Derrick Rose getting back to MVP form, something we haven't seen since 2011. Joakim Noah is banged up as well, and he is more important to this team than anyone else. I think Chicago could win the Finals, but a lot of things would have to break their way.
Atlanta. The argument is that they don't have a star to take over in a playoff game, and that's true. But San Antonio has made two consecutive Finals without a dominant superstar, and I think Atlanta has a chance to do something similar. They move the ball incredibly well, and play swarming defense. I picked them to lose to Golden State in the Finals.
Golden State. Everyone thinks this team is just an offensive juggernaut, but they play great defense, too. In fact, out of all the teams in the top ten, the Warriors are probably the most balanced. Draymond Green has a lot to do with that defense, but the entire team is built to switch on picks, which helps them disrupt teams that rotate the ball well, like the Hawks and the Spurs. Golden State is for real.
There are three teams just outside the top ten--Houston, San Antonio, and the Los Angeles Clippers. In 2001, the Lakers won a championship after ranking eleventh in field goal percentage allowed. That ranking might have to do with an injury plagued season, which is something the Spurs are familiar with this year.
Out of those three teams, I think the Spurs are the only one with a chance to compete for the Finals. The Clippers lack depth, and Houston doesn't have enough around James Harden. San Antonio, if healthy, can make a run.
Then there are the Cleveland Cavaliers. They ranked 20th in field goal percentage allowed. But they also made some trades late in the year that improved them defensively. So we don't have a full sample for our statistic. But I watched them throughout the year, and they didn't rise significantly after the trades for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert. If the Cavs were anywhere close to the top ten, I'd probably pick them for the Finals. But being ranked 20th, I can't. They would be making some pretty incredible history if they won.
Monday, April 20, 2015
Thursday, April 16, 2015
2015 Playoff Predictions
Every year, I can spot the contenders in the NBA. It's tough, but if you watch enough basketball, they start to stand out. Some fans get fooled, because more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs. The trick is to see the little things that make champions stand out, the tiny details that separate the winners from the losers.
Earlier this year, I thought there were a lot of teams in the Western Conference that could win the championship. But now, I think it's down to just a few. That's what happens over the course of 82 games. The NBA season is long and grueling. The team that eventually wins a ring has endured bumps, fake media fights, injuries, and four games in five nights stretches. They've put in hard work and had a little luck along the way. Which teams fit that profile this year? Here's my playoff predictions:
Eastern Conference
1st Round
--Hawks over Nets. This series will be a mercy killing. If Brooklyn wins a game, it'd be a successful playoff run.
--Cavs over Celtics. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but he can't overcome the talent deficit between these two teams. Unfortunately, this series won't be like those great Celtics-Cavs battles of 2008-2010.
--Bulls over Bucks. I love the team Milwaukee has built, and I like what Jason Kidd is doing with them, but the Bucks are just too young to contend with this talented Chicago team. The Bulls are banged up, but they should handle Milwaukee easily.
--Wizards over Raptors. Both of these teams have struggled over the last month of the season, but I believe in the talent of Washington. John Wall has taken a leap, and he'll be the difference in the series.
2nd Round
--Hawks over Wizards. Atlanta will win this, but Washington will make it interesting. The Hawks defense will shut down Wall and Bradley Beal isn't ready to carry an offense yet.
--Cavs over Bulls. If we're lucky, this one will go seven games. This was the Eastern Conference Finals we thought we would get. Unfortunately, I don't think Chicago is healthy enough to unseat the Cavs. Joakim Noah is beat up and you never know what you're going to get out of Derrick Rose. Cleveland, on the other hand, has two superstars in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as a better supporting cast. Again, talent wins out.
Eastern Conference Championship
--Hawks over Cavs. I don't think Cleveland plays good enough defense to make it past Atlanta. I could be wrong, because LeBron and Kyrie are so overwhelming. But Cleveland is ranked 20th in field goal percentage defense, and teams usually don't make the Finals ranked outside the top ten. I think Atlanta will find a way to frustrate the Cavs' superstars and the rest of the cast won't be able to carry the load. The Hawks ball movement will create easy scores and propel Atlanta to the Finals.
Western Conference
1st Round
--Warriors over Pelicans. This will probably be a sweep, unless Anthony Davis wins a game on his own.
--Mavs over Rockets. I might be letting my home team bias take over my brain right now, but I think Dallas can steal this one. The Rockets rely too heavily on James Harden, and the sorcerer that is Rick Carlisle will take him away, or at least contain him. Dwight Howard will have to have a monster series for Houston to advance.
--Spurs over Clippers. I think San Antonio's depth wins out here. Both teams are hot, but let's not forget, this Clippers team hasn't had much playoff success. Meanwhile, San Antonio has done nothing but succeed in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard has finally regained his form and has become a monster on both sides of the ball.
--Grizzlies over Blazers. Portland looked so good at the beginning of the year, but injuries have derailed their season. Memphis isn't playing well lately, but they've got more than enough enough talent to handle this weakened Blazers team.
2nd Round
--Warriors over Grizzlies. This series might get interesting, because Memphis has the size to bother Golden State. But I think the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will cause problems, and the Warriors will advance to the Western Conference Finals.
--Spurs over Mavs. I don't think we'll get seven games again, but you never know with Carlisle the Gray. Dallas just has less talent than San Antonio, and the parts on their team don't fit right for some reason.
Western Conference Finals
--Warriors over Spurs. I hesitated with this pick, because the Warriors haven't accomplished anything. But right now, they look like a historic team. Even though it wouldn't surprise me if the Spurs won this, Golden State has looked special all year. I think this is a toss up, but I'm going with the team with the +10 point differential.
NBA Finals
--Warriors over Hawks. For casual fans, this won't be great. But for NBA die-hards, the ball movement in this series will be like chocolate cake wrapped in bacon mixed with fireworks. I don't know if a coach has ever won a championship in his first year with the team, but Steve Kerr might pull off that rare feat.
The bottom line is that Golden State isn't just the best regular season team this year. They're one of the best teams in the past twenty years. They're the easy pick, and that's who I'm going with in 2015.
Earlier this year, I thought there were a lot of teams in the Western Conference that could win the championship. But now, I think it's down to just a few. That's what happens over the course of 82 games. The NBA season is long and grueling. The team that eventually wins a ring has endured bumps, fake media fights, injuries, and four games in five nights stretches. They've put in hard work and had a little luck along the way. Which teams fit that profile this year? Here's my playoff predictions:
Eastern Conference
1st Round
--Hawks over Nets. This series will be a mercy killing. If Brooklyn wins a game, it'd be a successful playoff run.
--Cavs over Celtics. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but he can't overcome the talent deficit between these two teams. Unfortunately, this series won't be like those great Celtics-Cavs battles of 2008-2010.
--Bulls over Bucks. I love the team Milwaukee has built, and I like what Jason Kidd is doing with them, but the Bucks are just too young to contend with this talented Chicago team. The Bulls are banged up, but they should handle Milwaukee easily.
--Wizards over Raptors. Both of these teams have struggled over the last month of the season, but I believe in the talent of Washington. John Wall has taken a leap, and he'll be the difference in the series.
2nd Round
--Hawks over Wizards. Atlanta will win this, but Washington will make it interesting. The Hawks defense will shut down Wall and Bradley Beal isn't ready to carry an offense yet.
--Cavs over Bulls. If we're lucky, this one will go seven games. This was the Eastern Conference Finals we thought we would get. Unfortunately, I don't think Chicago is healthy enough to unseat the Cavs. Joakim Noah is beat up and you never know what you're going to get out of Derrick Rose. Cleveland, on the other hand, has two superstars in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as a better supporting cast. Again, talent wins out.
Eastern Conference Championship
--Hawks over Cavs. I don't think Cleveland plays good enough defense to make it past Atlanta. I could be wrong, because LeBron and Kyrie are so overwhelming. But Cleveland is ranked 20th in field goal percentage defense, and teams usually don't make the Finals ranked outside the top ten. I think Atlanta will find a way to frustrate the Cavs' superstars and the rest of the cast won't be able to carry the load. The Hawks ball movement will create easy scores and propel Atlanta to the Finals.
Western Conference
1st Round
--Warriors over Pelicans. This will probably be a sweep, unless Anthony Davis wins a game on his own.
--Mavs over Rockets. I might be letting my home team bias take over my brain right now, but I think Dallas can steal this one. The Rockets rely too heavily on James Harden, and the sorcerer that is Rick Carlisle will take him away, or at least contain him. Dwight Howard will have to have a monster series for Houston to advance.
--Spurs over Clippers. I think San Antonio's depth wins out here. Both teams are hot, but let's not forget, this Clippers team hasn't had much playoff success. Meanwhile, San Antonio has done nothing but succeed in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard has finally regained his form and has become a monster on both sides of the ball.
--Grizzlies over Blazers. Portland looked so good at the beginning of the year, but injuries have derailed their season. Memphis isn't playing well lately, but they've got more than enough enough talent to handle this weakened Blazers team.
2nd Round
--Warriors over Grizzlies. This series might get interesting, because Memphis has the size to bother Golden State. But I think the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will cause problems, and the Warriors will advance to the Western Conference Finals.
--Spurs over Mavs. I don't think we'll get seven games again, but you never know with Carlisle the Gray. Dallas just has less talent than San Antonio, and the parts on their team don't fit right for some reason.
Western Conference Finals
--Warriors over Spurs. I hesitated with this pick, because the Warriors haven't accomplished anything. But right now, they look like a historic team. Even though it wouldn't surprise me if the Spurs won this, Golden State has looked special all year. I think this is a toss up, but I'm going with the team with the +10 point differential.
NBA Finals
--Warriors over Hawks. For casual fans, this won't be great. But for NBA die-hards, the ball movement in this series will be like chocolate cake wrapped in bacon mixed with fireworks. I don't know if a coach has ever won a championship in his first year with the team, but Steve Kerr might pull off that rare feat.
The bottom line is that Golden State isn't just the best regular season team this year. They're one of the best teams in the past twenty years. They're the easy pick, and that's who I'm going with in 2015.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Can You Build a Championship Team Around a Small Forward?
This isn't much of an article. It's more of an observation or a thought exercise.
I don't think you can win an NBA championship with a small forward as the center of your team.
I'm looking back over the last thirty years, going back to 1980, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson first appeared in the league. I'm not going to consider before that, because the NBA is a completely different landscape now. And to be honest, I haven't seen a lot of pre-1980 games.
So going chronologically, we can forget about all the Lakers and Celtics championship teams of the 80s. That Lakers dynasty was powered by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabar, a point guard and a center. Larry Bird was a power forward. I'm not going to argue about it. Bird was one of the first stretch fours, and no one likes to talk about it.
The Bad Boys Pistons won through the guard play of Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Erase the six Bulls championships. Michael Jordan, shooting guard, was driving that bus. Same with the Houston Rockets who won back to back championships through center Hakeem Olajuwan. The Spurs first won through David Robinson and Tim Duncan, then through Duncan and Tony Parker. The 2000-2002 Lakers leaned on the talent of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
The 2004 Detroit Pistons were one of the true complete teams, but you could say Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups were the most important players on that team. The 2006 Miami Heat rode Dwyane Wade and Bennett Salvatore to the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Lakers came back again with Kobe in 2009 and 2010. And the Dallas Mavericks came out of nowhere to win the Finals in 2011 behind the shooting of Dirk Nowitzki, a power forward.
That's a pretty good sampling, but I have left a few championship teams out. Let's look at those exceptions:
1983 Philadelphia 76ers--Somebody might want to give them as an example of a team built around a small forward that won a championship. After all, Julius Erving was one of the all-time great three's to ever play in the NBA. But this team didn't win because of Dr. J. It won because the Sixers traded for Moses Malone, along with his rebounding and big booty. Erving was a key piece of that Philly team, but Malone won the ring for them. Case closed.
2008 Boston Celtics--This team is kind of tricky. After all, Paul Pierce was the man on this team, and he's a small forward. But Pierce's Celtics kind of prove my point. Pierce consistently took his team deep into the playoffs (because he's a no-doubt hall of famer), but couldn't get them over the top until Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen showed up. Not because Pierce wasn't good enough. Because you can't win a championship by building around a small forward. Like it or not, a shooting guard and a power forward pushed those Celtics into championship territory, even if it was Pierce who set it up.
2012-2013 Miami Heat--You're probably thinking this is where my theory falls apart. LeBron James is a small forward, and he's won two championships and been to five Finals. He should be proof that you can win a championship with your team built around a small forward.
My rebuttal? LeBron James is a freak of nature. He's not really a small forward. I'd say he's a point forward. He's positionless, much like Charles Barkley and Magic Johnson. So I don't think he proves me wrong. He does so many things on a basketball court, to box him in to the small forward position seems wrong. Enough said.
I don't have any good reasons why a team built around a small forward can't win a championship. But they often fall short. Think of all of Carmelo Anthony's teams, or when the Bulls and Trailblazers built around Scottie Pippen. Maybe it's the versatility of the position. Small forwards are often asked to guard three positions, as well as be a slashing scorer. That's a lot to ask of one person, especially over 82 regular season games and a punishing post-season. It's the only thing I can think of to explain why small forwards don't lead teams to championships.
What do you think?
I don't think you can win an NBA championship with a small forward as the center of your team.
I'm looking back over the last thirty years, going back to 1980, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson first appeared in the league. I'm not going to consider before that, because the NBA is a completely different landscape now. And to be honest, I haven't seen a lot of pre-1980 games.
So going chronologically, we can forget about all the Lakers and Celtics championship teams of the 80s. That Lakers dynasty was powered by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabar, a point guard and a center. Larry Bird was a power forward. I'm not going to argue about it. Bird was one of the first stretch fours, and no one likes to talk about it.
The Bad Boys Pistons won through the guard play of Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Erase the six Bulls championships. Michael Jordan, shooting guard, was driving that bus. Same with the Houston Rockets who won back to back championships through center Hakeem Olajuwan. The Spurs first won through David Robinson and Tim Duncan, then through Duncan and Tony Parker. The 2000-2002 Lakers leaned on the talent of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
The 2004 Detroit Pistons were one of the true complete teams, but you could say Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups were the most important players on that team. The 2006 Miami Heat rode Dwyane Wade and Bennett Salvatore to the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Lakers came back again with Kobe in 2009 and 2010. And the Dallas Mavericks came out of nowhere to win the Finals in 2011 behind the shooting of Dirk Nowitzki, a power forward.
That's a pretty good sampling, but I have left a few championship teams out. Let's look at those exceptions:
1983 Philadelphia 76ers--Somebody might want to give them as an example of a team built around a small forward that won a championship. After all, Julius Erving was one of the all-time great three's to ever play in the NBA. But this team didn't win because of Dr. J. It won because the Sixers traded for Moses Malone, along with his rebounding and big booty. Erving was a key piece of that Philly team, but Malone won the ring for them. Case closed.
2008 Boston Celtics--This team is kind of tricky. After all, Paul Pierce was the man on this team, and he's a small forward. But Pierce's Celtics kind of prove my point. Pierce consistently took his team deep into the playoffs (because he's a no-doubt hall of famer), but couldn't get them over the top until Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen showed up. Not because Pierce wasn't good enough. Because you can't win a championship by building around a small forward. Like it or not, a shooting guard and a power forward pushed those Celtics into championship territory, even if it was Pierce who set it up.
2012-2013 Miami Heat--You're probably thinking this is where my theory falls apart. LeBron James is a small forward, and he's won two championships and been to five Finals. He should be proof that you can win a championship with your team built around a small forward.
My rebuttal? LeBron James is a freak of nature. He's not really a small forward. I'd say he's a point forward. He's positionless, much like Charles Barkley and Magic Johnson. So I don't think he proves me wrong. He does so many things on a basketball court, to box him in to the small forward position seems wrong. Enough said.
I don't have any good reasons why a team built around a small forward can't win a championship. But they often fall short. Think of all of Carmelo Anthony's teams, or when the Bulls and Trailblazers built around Scottie Pippen. Maybe it's the versatility of the position. Small forwards are often asked to guard three positions, as well as be a slashing scorer. That's a lot to ask of one person, especially over 82 regular season games and a punishing post-season. It's the only thing I can think of to explain why small forwards don't lead teams to championships.
What do you think?
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