Now that the 76ers 2015-16 season is over and their GM Sam Hinkie resigned with a 13-page letter, I thought it would be a good time to write a few words on why Hinkie's Process didn't work.
I don't think anyone would disagree with the fundamentals of Hinkie's plan for the 76ers. It's almost common knowledge that one of the worst things you can do as an NBA franchise is be middle-class. Sure, it's nice to say you made the playoffs eight of the last nine seasons, but when you're consistently getting the seventh or eighth seed, it destroys your basketball product. How so?
The lowest seed to win a championship in the NBA was the sixth seeded Houston Rockets in 1994-95, and they were defending their championship from the year before. So they knew how to win, and are the giant exception to the rule. Usually the winner of the Finals comes from the top three seeds in either conference.
When you're constantly making the playoffs as such a low seed, you're constantly picking in the late teens and early twenties in the draft. There's probably a chance you'll stumble into a quality player there, if you scout well, but there are rarely any franchise players picked that low in the draft. In fact, it's rare to find any superstar picked outside of the top five. You'd have to be insanely lucky to get a player that can change the direction of your team so late in the draft.
When you add in the fact that established NBA superstars rarely change teams (and even when they do it's to only a few markets), it's easy to see that fielding a mediocre team year after year eventually lands you in basketball purgatory. Yeah, you're good enough to make the playoffs, but you'll never be good enough to win.
So Hinkie's plan (and the 76ers ownership's, too, don't forget) was to bottom out and get high draft picks, hoping one of them would be that elusive superstar that every franchise wants. And bottom out they did. The Sixers record the last three years was 47-199. That's an average of 15.6 wins per season. That's bottoming out with gusto.
But it was the plan. The Sixers wanted to get high draft picks and collect assets so that they could either stumble onto a superstar or two through the draft, or trade for one with the high-value assets (draft picks and young players) they owned. Losing helped them do this. Not only did they collect those assets through their losing, they also participated in several trades that help them obtain picks or young players with team-friendly contracts.
Everyone agrees this is a sound strategy. So what went wrong?
First, the Sixers had bad luck. They didn't get Karl-Anthony Towns or D'Angelo Russell. They missed out on Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. Sometimes the lottery balls just don't bounce your way and the great players are taken before it's your turn.
Second, Philadelphia missed on their own picks. They traded for rookie forward Nerlens Noel, whose ceiling is poor man's Tyson Chandler but more than likely is just going to be a decent rotation player. They drafted Michael Carter-Williams, who was rookie of the year, then promptly traded him to the Bucks for assets. The next year, they drafted center Joel Embiid and forward Dario Saric, neither of whom has played a minute in the NBA. Then, last year, the Sixers drafted forward Jahlil Okafor.
If you're keeping track, that's four front court players drafted in a league where the team with the best record every plays a 6'7" forward at center. I don't understand this part of the Process, because even in a traditional sense all four of those guys can't play together. Maybe Hinkie's plan involved a team with only one guard. I don't know. But so far, those picks have not worked out well for them.
Third, they failed to sign veteran players to help develop their young team. Hinkie's plan called for young players with team-friendly contracts. That meant veterans weren't needed. Veteran players are for teams trying to win. The Sixers wanted assets, not victories. This makes sense in theory. But realistically, those young players need older guys to teach them how to play, how to live the NBA lifestyle, and how to be professional. The Sixers haven't had those guys the last three years. In fact, they've done their best to make sure none of them were around, because the most important thing was assets until you get your superstars. This led to a losing culture and a team with bad habits. Coaches can do their job to the best of their ability, but they need veterans to pass on their message. Philadelphia didn't have strong, veteran voices to teach young players how to win and thrive in the NBA.
In the end, I don't think the problem in Philly was with Hinkie's plan. It was the execution of the plan. He wasn't trying to lose on purpose or game the system. He had a strategy that he developed based on the landscape of the NBA. It just didn't work. Part of it was his fault and part of it was just the luck that comes along with sports sometimes. I'm interested to see where he ends up, and where the Sixers go from here.
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