Every year, I can spot the contenders in the NBA. It's tough, but if you watch enough basketball, they start to stand out. Some fans get fooled, because more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs. The trick is to see the little things that make champions stand out, the tiny details that separate the winners from the losers.
Earlier this year, I thought there were a lot of teams in the Western Conference that could win the championship. But now, I think it's down to just a few. That's what happens over the course of 82 games. The NBA season is long and grueling. The team that eventually wins a ring has endured bumps, fake media fights, injuries, and four games in five nights stretches. They've put in hard work and had a little luck along the way. Which teams fit that profile this year? Here's my playoff predictions:
Eastern Conference
1st Round
--Hawks over Nets. This series will be a mercy killing. If Brooklyn wins a game, it'd be a successful playoff run.
--Cavs over Celtics. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but he can't overcome the talent deficit between these two teams. Unfortunately, this series won't be like those great Celtics-Cavs battles of 2008-2010.
--Bulls over Bucks. I love the team Milwaukee has built, and I like what Jason Kidd is doing with them, but the Bucks are just too young to contend with this talented Chicago team. The Bulls are banged up, but they should handle Milwaukee easily.
--Wizards over Raptors. Both of these teams have struggled over the last month of the season, but I believe in the talent of Washington. John Wall has taken a leap, and he'll be the difference in the series.
2nd Round
--Hawks over Wizards. Atlanta will win this, but Washington will make it interesting. The Hawks defense will shut down Wall and Bradley Beal isn't ready to carry an offense yet.
--Cavs over Bulls. If we're lucky, this one will go seven games. This was the Eastern Conference Finals we thought we would get. Unfortunately, I don't think Chicago is healthy enough to unseat the Cavs. Joakim Noah is beat up and you never know what you're going to get out of Derrick Rose. Cleveland, on the other hand, has two superstars in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as a better supporting cast. Again, talent wins out.
Eastern Conference Championship
--Hawks over Cavs. I don't think Cleveland plays good enough defense to make it past Atlanta. I could be wrong, because LeBron and Kyrie are so overwhelming. But Cleveland is ranked 20th in field goal percentage defense, and teams usually don't make the Finals ranked outside the top ten. I think Atlanta will find a way to frustrate the Cavs' superstars and the rest of the cast won't be able to carry the load. The Hawks ball movement will create easy scores and propel Atlanta to the Finals.
Western Conference
1st Round
--Warriors over Pelicans. This will probably be a sweep, unless Anthony Davis wins a game on his own.
--Mavs over Rockets. I might be letting my home team bias take over my brain right now, but I think Dallas can steal this one. The Rockets rely too heavily on James Harden, and the sorcerer that is Rick Carlisle will take him away, or at least contain him. Dwight Howard will have to have a monster series for Houston to advance.
--Spurs over Clippers. I think San Antonio's depth wins out here. Both teams are hot, but let's not forget, this Clippers team hasn't had much playoff success. Meanwhile, San Antonio has done nothing but succeed in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard has finally regained his form and has become a monster on both sides of the ball.
--Grizzlies over Blazers. Portland looked so good at the beginning of the year, but injuries have derailed their season. Memphis isn't playing well lately, but they've got more than enough enough talent to handle this weakened Blazers team.
2nd Round
--Warriors over Grizzlies. This series might get interesting, because Memphis has the size to bother Golden State. But I think the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will cause problems, and the Warriors will advance to the Western Conference Finals.
--Spurs over Mavs. I don't think we'll get seven games again, but you never know with Carlisle the Gray. Dallas just has less talent than San Antonio, and the parts on their team don't fit right for some reason.
Western Conference Finals
--Warriors over Spurs. I hesitated with this pick, because the Warriors haven't accomplished anything. But right now, they look like a historic team. Even though it wouldn't surprise me if the Spurs won this, Golden State has looked special all year. I think this is a toss up, but I'm going with the team with the +10 point differential.
NBA Finals
--Warriors over Hawks. For casual fans, this won't be great. But for NBA die-hards, the ball movement in this series will be like chocolate cake wrapped in bacon mixed with fireworks. I don't know if a coach has ever won a championship in his first year with the team, but Steve Kerr might pull off that rare feat.
The bottom line is that Golden State isn't just the best regular season team this year. They're one of the best teams in the past twenty years. They're the easy pick, and that's who I'm going with in 2015.
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