Playoff Predictions

The Warriors are going to win the championship. Because they're easily the best team ever. I give the Spurs 25% chance of beating them, which seems way too high, but Greg Popovich is my spirit animal, so I always give them too much credit.

The Philadelphia Experiment

Now that the 76ers 2015-16 season is over and their GM Sam Hinkie resigned with a 13-page letter, I thought it would be a good time to write a few words on why Hinkie's Process didn't work.

I don't think anyone would disagree with the fundamentals of Hinkie's plan for the 76ers. It's almost common knowledge that one of the worst things you can do as an NBA franchise is be middle-class. Sure, it's nice to say you made the playoffs eight of the last nine seasons, but when you're consistently getting the seventh or eighth seed, it destroys your basketball product. How so?

The lowest seed to win a championship in the NBA was the sixth seeded Houston Rockets in 1994-95, and they were defending their championship from the year before. So they knew how to win, and are the giant exception to the rule. Usually the winner of the Finals comes from the top three seeds in either conference.

When you're constantly making the playoffs as such a low seed, you're constantly picking in the late teens and early twenties in the draft. There's probably a chance you'll stumble into a quality player there, if you scout well, but there are rarely any franchise players picked that low in the draft. In fact, it's rare to find any superstar picked outside of the top five. You'd have to be insanely lucky to get a player that can change the direction of your team so late in the draft.

When you add in the fact that established NBA superstars rarely change teams (and even when they do it's to only a few markets), it's easy to see that fielding a mediocre team year after year eventually lands you in basketball purgatory. Yeah, you're good enough to make the playoffs, but you'll never be good enough to win.

So Hinkie's plan (and the 76ers ownership's, too, don't forget) was to bottom out and get high draft picks, hoping one of them would be that elusive superstar that every franchise wants. And bottom out they did. The Sixers record the last three years was 47-199. That's an average of 15.6 wins per season. That's bottoming out with gusto.

But it was the plan. The Sixers wanted to get high draft picks and collect assets so that they could either stumble onto a superstar or two through the draft, or trade for one with the high-value assets (draft picks and young players) they owned. Losing helped them do this. Not only did they collect those assets through their losing, they also participated in several trades that help them obtain picks or young players with team-friendly contracts.

Everyone agrees this is a sound strategy. So what went wrong?

First, the Sixers had bad luck. They didn't get Karl-Anthony Towns or D'Angelo Russell. They missed out on Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. Sometimes the lottery balls just don't bounce your way and the great players are taken before it's your turn.

Second, Philadelphia missed on their own picks. They traded for rookie forward Nerlens Noel, whose ceiling is poor man's Tyson Chandler but more than likely is just going to be a decent rotation player. They drafted Michael Carter-Williams, who was rookie of the year, then promptly traded him to the Bucks for assets. The next year, they drafted center Joel Embiid and forward Dario Saric, neither of whom has played a minute in the NBA. Then, last year, the Sixers drafted forward Jahlil Okafor.

If you're keeping track, that's four front court players drafted in a league where the team with the best record every plays a 6'7" forward at center. I don't understand this part of the Process, because even in a traditional sense all four of those guys can't play together. Maybe Hinkie's plan involved a team with only one guard. I don't know. But so far, those picks have not worked out well for them.

Third, they failed to sign veteran players to help develop their young team. Hinkie's plan called for young players with team-friendly contracts. That meant veterans weren't needed. Veteran players are for teams trying to win. The Sixers wanted assets, not victories. This makes sense in theory. But realistically, those young players need older guys to teach them how to play, how to live the NBA lifestyle, and how to be professional. The Sixers haven't had those guys the last three years. In fact, they've done their best to make sure none of them were around, because the most important thing was assets until you get your superstars. This led to a losing culture and a team with bad habits. Coaches can do their job to the best of their ability, but they need veterans to pass on their message. Philadelphia didn't have strong, veteran voices to teach young players how to win and thrive in the NBA.

In the end, I don't think the problem in Philly was with Hinkie's plan. It was the execution of the plan. He wasn't trying to lose on purpose or game the system. He had a strategy that he developed based on the landscape of the NBA. It just didn't work. Part of it was his fault and part of it was just the luck that comes along with sports sometimes. I'm interested to see where he ends up, and where the Sixers go from here.

On Jason Kidd

I don't remember much basketball from the nineties, so my first memory of Jason Kidd is when he was leading the New Jersey Nets to back to back Finals appearances in the early part of this century. And mostly what I picture in my mind is him feeding Vince Carter alley oops and kickouts to Kerry Kittles and Keith Van Horn for wide open threes. I missed his first stint with the Mavericks and his time with the Suns.

I looked up his highlights on Youtube, though, and once I got past the bleached hair, I found a more athletic Jason Kidd than I remembered. But that isn't what caught my attention.

The main thing that stands out from when you watch Kidd in his early years and then in his prime in New Jersey is his relentless penetration of the paint. Whether by driving or pinpoint passes, Kidd got into the teeth of the defense, constantly pushing the ball closer and closer to the rim. Everyone remembers the no-look passes, but I think him racing the ball up the court and somehow making sure the ball got to the hoop was more impressive.

This was the time when everyone called him Ason Kidd, because he had no J. And they were right. Kidd couldn't shoot. But that makes what he did even more impressive. Despite the fact that opponents were sagging back, daring him to shoot, he was still use his athleticism and size to get to the hole. Kidd was a wizard when it came to attacking the paint, and that should be his defining legacy of the nineties.

We also shouldn't forget, however, that he shot about six hundred three pointers his first two seasons, despite hovering around only thirty percent from downtown. He shouldn't have been shooting that much. But hey, his hair was the color of mustard and there was no internet at the time, so we'll leave it alone.

Then came his time in New Jersey. This was peak Jason Kidd. He ran the break perfectly, He made guys like Richard Jefferson, Kerry Kittles, and Keith Van Horn look really good. Those guys made a lot of money because of Kidd.

His shooting improved, but barely. Mostly he got his point by doing what he did in Dallas and Phoenix--getting the ball into the paint by any means necessary. He got the Nets to the Finals two years in a row, and did it with a roster that is underwhelming when you look back at it. Don't get me wrong, those guys I mentioned above were good. But Kidd made them special, and they never got back to that level again once they weren't on his team.

What followed were some fun years with Vince Carter once he arrived from Toronto. But the Nets were never a serious contender, and after a few years, Kidd wanted out to chase a ring.

When the Dallas Mavericks acquired Kidd, I thought the trade was a wash. Dallas gave up some young assets, most notably Devin Harris, But Kidd could get the ball to Dirk Nowitzki in good positions and run a team efficiently. I didn't think Kidd would put the Mavericks over the top by himself, but he was a good piece to have.

Rick Carlisle and Kidd clashed at first. Carlisle is controlling on offense and hard on point guards. But eventually he learned to trust Kidd to run the offense, which was a smart move. Nowitzki is especially dangerous in transition, most notably on trailing three's.

Two things developed in Kidd's game in Dallas that made him a key piece to the Mav's championship run in 2011. First, he began shooting spot-up three's with accuracy. He could camp out at the wing or top of the arc and wait for a kick out off a drive or a double-team on Nowitzki. Teams couldn't ignore him and it caused defenses to stretch.

Second, Kidd began to leverage his strength to defend larger players, allowing the Mavs to switch more often. One of the images that stands out in my mind during the Finals that year was Kidd defending LeBron James and doing it well.

It was really fun to watch the transformation of Kidd from a run-and-gun point guard who made his living on the break to a deadly catch-and-shoot point guard who could defend any position one through four.

It didn't surprise me that Kidd went into coaching, not even when he was made a head coach in his first year of retirement. That chapter of his career has yet to be written, but if he approaches it with the versatility of his playing days, he'll do just fine.

All-Star Game

That wasn't the greatest All-Star weekend in NBA history, but it was one of the best in recent years. The celebrity game was a little weak, but the Rising Stars game was good. Karl-Anthony Towns winning the Skills Challenge was a little unexpected. The Steph Curry-Klay Thompson duel was fun to watch, and I'm not surprised that Thompson won. He had a serious look in his eye the whole time. He's been thinking about it for a while. I'm surprised JJ Reddick didn't do better.

Then there was the dunk contest. It wasn't better than MJ vs Dominique, or Vince Carter in 2000, but that was a show. Zach Lavine and Aaron Gordon made up for their lack of star power with heavy doses of creativity and athleticism. I think Lavine had an advantage because of winning the dunk contest last year.

The actual All-Star game was a little dry, but still entertaining. There were some fun plays, and Kobe Bryant played well for his last time. I enjoyed watching Russell Westbrook, because he goes so hard no matter the situation. It would have been fun to see the West get to 200, or for the game to be a little bit closer, but hey, you can't have everything.

The only complaint I have was the absence of Vince Carter. Whether it was his choice or lack of effort on the NBA's part, we didn't get enough of Vince. That was a mistake on someone's part. And Sting was a poor halftime show choice.

That's all guys.

Retro Recap: 1999 NBA Finals Game 5

I'm calling this article a Retro Recap. I stumbled across Game 5 of the 1999 NBA Finals on NBATV and a lot of thoughts came pouring out. So I thought I'd write them down for your entertainment. So lets just get started:

1st Quarter, 9:27. Latrell Sprewell just hit a shot and the camera goes in for a closeup. All I think about when I see Latrell are spinners and PJ Carlesimo with a bruised throat. It's easy to forget that Sprewell was a pretty good NBA player for a while.

9:12. Just caught a glimpse of Gregg Popovich and Jeff Van Gundy. Pop looks like he's fresh out of the Air Force and Van Gundy might have just given up on a real estate career. Also, why does Larry Johnson look like he was a long-haul trucker during the offseason?

7:05. I forgot that the Knicks were good at basketball once. This is a nice reminder.

5:55. Tim Duncan looks exactly the same as he does today in 2015. Maybe he's a little thinner here. But the moves are the same, the defense is the same. That same blank, robotic stare. There's something amazing about guys who seem to have another gear, who can do amazing things we've rarely seen in sports. I'm thinking Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan. But there's something equally amazing about guys who are consistently great for more than a decade. I think that might be harder to do. And Duncan has been a basketball artist for as long as I can remember. That leaves me in awe of him.

2:55. Avery Johnson cracks me up. If you've never seen David Robinson's impression of Avery, you're missing out. I'd link to it, but I can't find the video anywhere, which seems almost impossible these days. But use your imagination and picture The Admiral mimicking an angry and animated Little General. Yeah, it's even better than that.

2nd Quarter, 9:07. I forgot about Malik Rose. I always liked his game.

8:22. I don't care for Bob Costas. That's all.

2:30. It's weird to watch San Antonio play this game. Their style has changed so much since 1999, which is to say that the style of play in the NBA has changed so much since 1999. And it's for the best. The product is a lot more entertaining today. Much credit has to be given to the NBA for recognizing that the pace of play had to increase and then making the correct rule changes to encourage a faster, smoother game. Also, kudos to Popovich and the Spurs for seeing the direction the NBA was heading and adjusting sooner than everyone else. They completely changed their offensive system, something that isn't easy to do.

0:45. The broadcast just mentioned that David Robinson once scored 70 points in a game. I think it's easy to forget how dominant Robinson could be at times. Maybe it's because he didn't win a ring until Duncan came along and the perception is that obviously he wasn't that good if he couldn't win a title on his own. The dude was a beast, though, and killed it on both ends.

3rd Quarter, 7:42. Allan Houston just hit a long two, and somewhere 27-year-old Daryl Morey just got dizzy and felt a pain in his side. I forgot what a good shooter Houston was, and it's fun to watch him swish shot after shot in this game while everyone else looks like they were drafted off of a rugby team.

5:49. Marcus Camby is everywhere in this game. It's too bad he didn't play in today's NBA. He would have been a nightmare defensively. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory, has gained a lot of traction lately, but what's important to remember is how well Camby played in the 1999 playoffs. It's not surprising that the Knicks played better when they replaced an aging, immobile center with a young, athletic center. Camby made the 1999 Knicks a great defensive team.

1:19. Tim Duncan bank shot is good, because he's a machine.

4th Quarter, 11:58. It's the start of the fourth quarter, and the score is 59-58 in favor of San Antonio. I know I've already said it like three times, but the NBA is better now. No one wants to watch these muddled up scrums posing as basketball plays. It's why college basketball sucks. And if anyone tells you the NBA was better back in 1999, you have my permission to kick them in the shin twice.

10:47. Sprewell was really, really good for about five years. I forgot he was such a gifted scorer. I know I mentioned it at the beginning of this piece, but man, he's so tough to guard, inside and out. He's keeping New York in this game by himself. The lesson here, kids, is don't choke your head coach, because that's all you'll be remembered for one day.

7:47. Popovich gets plenty of praise, but it's not enough. The Knicks have started double-teaming Duncan on the block, and he's making the perfect pass out to guards who are then making the perfect pass to the wing who then make the perfect basketball decision. The narrative is always that Popovich selects the smartest players for his system, but maybe the narrative should be that Popovich selects players and then teaches them how to make the best basketball plays possible. I think the second one makes him a better coach.

6:30. Young Steve Kerr sighting as Sean Elliot sits with his fourth personal!

2:37. I think it's amazing that Duncan's free throw shooting has never been a big problem for the Spurs or a lingering story line. He's never been good at the line, but he's kept it just respectable enough to keep the media off his back. Plus he graduated from the Shaquille O'Neal school of "I make them when they count."

1:53. 77-76 New York. This game is an offensive cesspool of sadness.

0:47. Avery Johnson just hit a wide open long two from the near corner because Duncan made the perfect pass out of a double team to Sean Elliot, who kicked it over to the Little General before New York could reset. Because Spurs. 78-77 Spurs.

0:02. Van Gundy draws up a really good play. Sprewell fakes a screen at the top of the key and then dives to the hoop. Unfortunately he cuts too soon, and Elliot stays with him. Sprewell catches the inbound too deep and is stuck under the hoop. He's only able to shoot a desperation fade-away with Duncan and Elliot towering over him. Spurs win. But that's a genius play. If Sprewell waits half a second longer, Elliot comes off him to hedge on Allan Houston, and Sprewell gets a wide open layup to win the game.

This is one of the first Finals I remember clearly, and it's the beginning of the San Antonio dynasty that has changed the NBA over the last fifteen years. While it's not the most aesthetically pleasing basketball games to watch, it's interesting for its own reasons.

NBA Draft Recap

Early in the week, it looked like the NBA was going to be thrown into a whirlwind of chaotic trades during the draft. But when Mason Plumlee is the bombshell trade of the night, you know things ended up a little more bland than everyone was thinking. That's because the trade that would have set everything in motion never happened. If DeMarcus Cousins had ended up a Laker, players would've started moving back and forth across the NBA. But he didn't, and we ended up with a pretty boring draft night. Still, there were some highlights:

Karl-Anthony Towns went first, like expected. I'm not sure what to make of the Kentucky product. He could end up a special talent, he could be a Tyson Chandler clone, or he could end up an athletic big running around with no position. The idea is that in today's NBA, Towns can defend against smaller lineups and space the floor. And that's great in theory. What will be interesting is seeing if he can do that in the NBA. He'll take a while to develop, but he has high upside.

The Lakers surprised everyone by taking D'Angelo Russell. Leading up to the draft, all the talk was how LA was going to take Jahlil Okafor. Then, about 48 hours prior, word leaked that Russell was going to be the pick. Is this a sign that the shift to a wing-dominated NBA is complete? I don't know a lot about Russell, but he looks explosive from what I've seen. Learning from Kobe Bryant won't hurt, either.

Philly picked another big, giving them a surplus in the front court. Jahlil Okafor will step in and average 20 and 10 without hesitation, and I believe he'll win rookie of the year. The drafting of Okafor probably means either Nerlens Noel or Joel Embiid will be traded, but I don't think Philly is in a hurry to move either. They don't know what Embiid can do since he hasn't been able to get on the floor due to injury. I can't say which they should keep, because we haven't seen Embiid against NBA talent. I do think, however, that Okafor is the start of something for the Sixers. Whatever deficiencies he has on defense, his offensive skills can make up for. A few veterans and some shooters and Philly can challenge for a playoff spot in the East.

The New York Knicks picked Kris Porzingis. And their fans weren't happy. I don't blame them. Not because Porzingis will be bad. I don't know that. I think it's a bad move because they have Carmelo Anthony as the focus of their team, and they need to win now. Best case scenario, Porzingis is playing at an all-star level in five years. By then, Anthony will be 36 years old and close to retirement. You can't win a championship like that. Problems occur at any organization, basketball or otherwise, when they don't know who they are or what they want to be. Are the Knicks planning on being contenders in the five years? Then trade the pick or Porzingis for a player who can contribute right away. Are the Knicks planning on rebuilding? Then trade Anthony for a package of young players and picks and build for the future. Phil Jackson hasn't inspired confidence, and this pick didn't make sense to me.

Emmanuel Mudiay went to the Nuggets, which means Ty Lawson is on the move. Kenneth Faried will probably go, too. Just a good time to remind everyone that Denver hasn't made the playoffs since they fired George Karl the year he won Coach of the Year.

Nine teams passed on Justise Winslow, and they'll all regret it. I'm pissed that he ended up in Miami, because I hate Miami. I hope Dwyane Wade bails on them and ends up playing the rest of his career in Sacramento for six different coaches. Anyway, Winslow is my favorite player in this draft and at worst he'll be a solid role player on a championship team one day.

Everyone is down on Frank Kaminsky, but I think they'll be surprised by him. No, I don't think he'll ever make an all-star team, but he's more athletic than people think and he's smart on the court. He'll contribute to a playoff team one day, too, but probably not for Charlotte. Because they never go on deep playoff runs.

Myles Turner in, Roy Hibbert out in Indiana. Because Roy Hibbert got body snatched. Remember when everyone thought Hibbert was a defensive genius? That's long gone. Turner didn't impress me at Texas. He rarely stood out and I think he'll have to work hard to contribute to an NBA team.

Cameron Payne referred to himself in the third person, so I don't like his game.

Sam Dekker got drafted by the Rockets and then proceeded to mow his parents' yard. So that's nice. Maybe he doesn't know how much money he just made. Everyone keeps saying he's similar to Chandler Parsons, but I don't think so.

The Celtics drafted Marcus Thornton in the second round. I'm pretty sure there are already two Marcus Thorntons in the NBA. Is this the same guy getting drafted every few years? I want to see E:60 investigate this.

The Mavericks drafted the first Indian born player in the NBA so Mark Cuban could sell a crap ton of t-shirts in India. Or for basketball reasons. Whatever.

And that, ladies and gentleman, is how you turn an eagerly anticipated draft into a boring night of role calls by Adam Silver.

Thoughts on the Finals

--Cleveland looked so much bigger than Golden State. Not height-wise, but just bigger bodies. And it mattered. The Warriors' shooting helped even out the disparity, but with the physical nature of the series it gave the Cavs an advantage.

--As usual with young players, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have to be more consistent. Some will call that inconsistency the result of being a jump-shooting team, but I think it has more to do with their youth and inexperience. If they're as talented as I think they are, that will change.

--LeBron might be a machine sent from the future to destroy basketball. Making it to the Finals five years in a row is exhausting enough, but doing it with this Cavs team is crazy. That's not a knock on the guys surrounding him. They played their hearts out and did everything they could. But the NBA has become an offensive league, and no one else on Cleveland is capable of creating their own offense. The way he put this team on his back and willed it into contention is amazing.

--Tristan Thompson showed everyone that he's going to be a grit and grind guy for the next five to seven years in this league. Championship teams need players like him to win in June.

--I'm really impressed with what Steve Kerr did with this Golden State team. He convinced an all-star to come off the bench and barely played the highest paid player on the roster. When he decided to go small in game four, Andrew Bogut read the writing on the wall and realized he probably wouldn't play much the rest of the series. All of that, and no chemistry problems. No complaining, no whining. Nothing but sterling play from a cohesive team. It's incredible he was able to get guys to buy in like that, especially in the NBA.

--Staying with Steve Kerr, I'm also impressed with his tactical prowess. Inserting Andre Iguadola into the starting lineup was a bold move, but most people thought it was a good idea. Starting Iguadola over Andrew Bogut, however, was ballsy beyond belief. He changed the shape of his 67 win team with only four games left in the season. That's not something most rookie coaches would do. So let's give Kerr the props he deserves.

--This series was a waste of LeBron James. No one was expecting a lot out of his surrounding cast, other than being professional and contributing. And for the most part, LeBron's teammates did that. They're just limited, and it showed tremendously. It was a shame to watch LeBron put up historic numbers, all for nothing. Injuries played a big part of it, and a lot of Cavaliers played above what they usually do. But still. I wish LeBron had a little more help.

--I loved Andre Iguadola winning the MVP. He did the big things, the little things, and everything in between to help the Warriors win. I loved it.

--To me, this wasn't a great Finals, but it wasn't terrible either. I enjoyed watching the Warriors do their thing, and I was fascinated by how LeBron James controlled games. It was a high-rated Finals, so people seemed to like it. Maybe we'll get the same matchup next year.

Who Are the Contenders?

A while ago, I wrote that over the last fifteen years, every NBA champion ranked in the top ten in field goal percentage allowed. Read it here. A quick recap: a team isn't guaranteed to win if they're ranked in the top ten, but history shows they won't win a championship if they're not.

The top ten in field goal percentage allowed this year:

1. Golden State
2. Washington
3. Indiana
4. Chicago
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. Portland
8. Charlotte
9. Oklahoma City
10. Memphis

OKC, Indiana, and Charlotte didn't make the playoffs. Milwaukee is just too young to be taken serious. Portland looks too banged up. That leaves us with five teams, plus a few notable omissions.

Washington and Memphis. At some point during the season, these two teams looked like championship contenders. Lately, though, they've been sputtering and picking them to make the Finals would be ludicrous. I can see the Grizzlies getting on a roll and making it. The Wizards--not so much.

Chicago. The Bulls are always in the mix for a championship, but their offense is sporadic. As always, it depends on Derrick Rose getting back to MVP form, something we haven't seen since 2011. Joakim Noah is banged up as well, and he is more important to this team than anyone else. I think Chicago could win the Finals, but a lot of things would have to break their way.

Atlanta. The argument is that they don't have a star to take over in a playoff game, and that's true. But San Antonio has made two consecutive Finals without a dominant superstar, and I think Atlanta has a chance to do something similar. They move the ball incredibly well, and play swarming defense. I picked them to lose to Golden State in the Finals.

Golden State. Everyone thinks this team is just an offensive juggernaut, but they play great defense, too. In fact, out of all the teams in the top ten, the Warriors are probably the most balanced. Draymond Green has a lot to do with that defense, but the entire team is built to switch on picks, which helps them disrupt teams that rotate the ball well, like the Hawks and the Spurs. Golden State is for real.

There are three teams just outside the top ten--Houston, San Antonio, and the Los Angeles Clippers. In 2001, the Lakers won a championship after ranking eleventh in field goal percentage allowed. That ranking might have to do with an injury plagued season, which is something the Spurs are familiar with this year.

Out of those three teams, I think the Spurs are the only one with a chance to compete for the Finals. The Clippers lack depth, and Houston doesn't have enough around James Harden. San Antonio, if healthy, can make a run.

Then there are the Cleveland Cavaliers. They ranked 20th in field goal percentage allowed. But they also made some trades late in the year that improved them defensively. So we don't have a full sample for our statistic. But I watched them throughout the year, and they didn't rise significantly after the trades for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert. If the Cavs were anywhere close to the top ten, I'd probably pick them for the Finals. But being ranked 20th, I can't. They would be making some pretty incredible history if they won.

2015 Playoff Predictions

Every year, I can spot the contenders in the NBA. It's tough, but if you watch enough basketball, they start to stand out. Some fans get fooled, because more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs. The trick is to see the little things that make champions stand out, the tiny details that separate the winners from the losers.

Earlier this year, I thought there were a lot of teams in the Western Conference that could win the championship. But now, I think it's down to just a few. That's what happens over the course of 82 games. The NBA season is long and grueling. The team that eventually wins a ring has endured bumps, fake media fights, injuries, and four games in five nights stretches. They've put in hard work and had a little luck along the way. Which teams fit that profile this year? Here's my playoff predictions:

Eastern Conference

1st Round

--Hawks over Nets. This series will be a mercy killing. If Brooklyn wins a game, it'd be a successful playoff run.

--Cavs over Celtics. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but he can't overcome the talent deficit between these two teams. Unfortunately, this series won't be like those great Celtics-Cavs battles of 2008-2010.

--Bulls over Bucks. I love the team Milwaukee has built, and I like what Jason Kidd is doing with them, but the Bucks are just too young to contend with this talented Chicago team. The Bulls are banged up, but they should handle Milwaukee easily.

--Wizards over Raptors. Both of these teams have struggled over the last month of the season, but I believe in the talent of Washington. John Wall has taken a leap, and he'll be the difference in the series.

2nd Round

--Hawks over Wizards. Atlanta will win this, but Washington will make it interesting. The Hawks defense will shut down Wall and Bradley Beal isn't ready to carry an offense yet.

--Cavs over Bulls. If we're lucky, this one will go seven games. This was the Eastern Conference Finals we thought we would get. Unfortunately, I don't think Chicago is healthy enough to unseat the Cavs. Joakim Noah is beat up and you never know what you're going to get out of Derrick Rose. Cleveland, on the other hand, has two superstars in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as a better supporting cast. Again, talent wins out.

Eastern Conference Championship

--Hawks over Cavs. I don't think Cleveland plays good enough defense to make it past Atlanta. I could be wrong, because LeBron and Kyrie are so overwhelming. But Cleveland is ranked 20th in field goal percentage defense, and teams usually don't make the Finals ranked outside the top ten. I think Atlanta will find a way to frustrate the Cavs' superstars and the rest of the cast won't be able to carry the load. The Hawks ball movement will create easy scores and propel Atlanta to the Finals.


Western Conference

1st Round

--Warriors over Pelicans. This will probably be a sweep, unless Anthony Davis wins a game on his own.

--Mavs over Rockets. I might be letting my home team bias take over my brain right now, but I think Dallas can steal this one. The Rockets rely too heavily on James Harden, and the sorcerer that is Rick Carlisle will take him away, or at least contain him. Dwight Howard will have to have a monster series for Houston to advance.

--Spurs over Clippers. I think San Antonio's depth wins out here. Both teams are hot, but let's not forget, this Clippers team hasn't had much playoff success. Meanwhile, San Antonio has done nothing but succeed in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard has finally regained his form and has become a monster on both sides of the ball.

--Grizzlies over Blazers. Portland looked so good at the beginning of the year, but injuries have derailed their season. Memphis isn't playing well lately, but they've got more than enough enough talent to handle this weakened Blazers team.

2nd Round

--Warriors over Grizzlies. This series might get interesting, because Memphis has the size to bother Golden State. But I think the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will cause problems, and the Warriors will advance to the Western Conference Finals.

--Spurs over Mavs. I don't think we'll get seven games again, but you never know with Carlisle the Gray. Dallas just has less talent than San Antonio, and the parts on their team don't fit right for some reason.

Western Conference Finals

--Warriors over Spurs. I hesitated with this pick, because the Warriors haven't accomplished anything. But right now, they look like a historic team. Even though it wouldn't surprise me if the Spurs won this, Golden State has looked special all year. I think this is a toss up, but I'm going with the team with the +10 point differential.

NBA Finals

--Warriors over Hawks. For casual fans, this won't be great. But for NBA die-hards, the ball movement in this series will be like chocolate cake wrapped in bacon mixed with fireworks. I don't know if a coach has ever won a championship in his first year with the team, but Steve Kerr might pull off that rare feat.

The bottom line is that Golden State isn't just the best regular season team this year. They're one of the best teams in the past twenty years. They're the easy pick, and that's who I'm going with in 2015.

Can You Build a Championship Team Around a Small Forward?

This isn't much of an article. It's more of an observation or a thought exercise.

I don't think you can win an NBA championship with a small forward as the center of your team.

I'm looking back over the last thirty years, going back to 1980, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson first appeared in the league. I'm not going to consider before that, because the NBA is a completely different landscape now. And to be honest, I haven't seen a lot of pre-1980 games.

So going chronologically, we can forget about all the Lakers and Celtics championship teams of the 80s. That Lakers dynasty was powered by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabar, a point guard and a center. Larry Bird was a power forward. I'm not going to argue about it. Bird was one of the first stretch fours, and no one likes to talk about it.

The Bad Boys Pistons won through the guard play of Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Erase the six Bulls championships. Michael Jordan, shooting guard, was driving that bus. Same with the Houston Rockets who won back to back championships through center Hakeem Olajuwan. The Spurs first won through David Robinson and Tim Duncan, then through Duncan and Tony Parker. The 2000-2002 Lakers leaned on the talent of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.

The 2004 Detroit Pistons were one of the true complete teams, but you could say Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups were the most important players on that team. The 2006 Miami Heat rode Dwyane Wade and Bennett Salvatore to the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Lakers came back again with Kobe in 2009 and 2010. And the Dallas Mavericks came out of nowhere to win the Finals in 2011 behind the shooting of Dirk Nowitzki, a power forward.

That's a pretty good sampling, but I have left a few championship teams out. Let's look at those exceptions:

1983 Philadelphia 76ers--Somebody might want to give them as an example of a team built around a small forward that won a championship. After all, Julius Erving was one of the all-time great three's to ever play in the NBA. But this team didn't win because of Dr. J. It won because the Sixers traded for Moses Malone, along with his rebounding and big booty. Erving was a key piece of that Philly team, but Malone won the ring for them. Case closed.

2008 Boston Celtics--This team is kind of tricky. After all, Paul Pierce was the man on this team, and he's a small forward. But Pierce's Celtics kind of prove my point. Pierce consistently took his team deep into the playoffs (because he's a no-doubt hall of famer), but couldn't get them over the top until Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen showed up. Not because Pierce wasn't good enough. Because you can't win a championship by building around a small forward. Like it or not, a shooting guard and a power forward pushed those Celtics into championship territory, even if it was Pierce who set it up.

2012-2013 Miami Heat--You're probably thinking this is where my theory falls apart. LeBron James is a small forward, and he's won two championships and been to five Finals. He should be proof that you can win a championship with your team built around a small forward.

My rebuttal? LeBron James is a freak of nature. He's not really a small forward. I'd say he's a point forward. He's positionless, much like Charles Barkley and Magic Johnson. So I don't think he proves me wrong. He does so many things on a basketball court, to box him in to the small forward position seems wrong. Enough said.


I don't have any good reasons why a team built around a small forward can't win a championship. But they often fall short. Think of all of Carmelo Anthony's teams, or when the Bulls and Trailblazers built around Scottie Pippen. Maybe it's the versatility of the position. Small forwards are often asked to guard three positions, as well as be a slashing scorer. That's a lot to ask of one person, especially over 82 regular season games and a punishing post-season. It's the only thing I can think of to explain why small forwards don't lead teams to championships.

What do you think?

The Crowded MVP Race

I haven't posted anything since December. Early December. So I have a lot on my mind. Kevin Love and LeBron. Steve Nash retiring. Oklahoma City pissing off the basketball gods. Nikola Mirotic. Mitch McGary and his sideline antics. So much NBA stuff.

I'll skip the excuses and get right into one of the most interesting MVP races we've ever seen. Let's start with the candidates, in no particular order:

Steph Curry
LeBron James
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Chris Paul

There's probably at least one name on that list you weren't expecting to see, if not two. I'll explain why each deserves the MVP, but I can tell you right now I can't pick who's going to win. I can see it going two or three different ways. What I will do is break them down from least likely to win to most likely. Here we go.

Chris Paul--CP3 is quietly having a great year. No one is giving him a chance to win the MVP, and rightfully so. Paul did kind of cruise through the first couple of months of the regular season, though you can't blame him. At this point in his career, all that matters in playoff success, and he's got that surgically repaired knee to think about.

But when Blake Griffin went down, Paul stepped up his game. He put a thin Clippers roster on his back and kept them humming along. No one is talking about this enough. When Griffin developed some sort of mutant infection in his elbow, Los Angeles was in the middle of a nine game road trip and had just dropped five of six. Chris Paul puffed his chest out, shook his head and refused to let them go down in flames. In the next seven games, the Clippers beat Dallas, Memphis, Houston, and San Antonio. All because Paul saw what was going on, and did what he had to do.

Up until Griffin's injury, Paul was averaging about 17 points a game. Since then, he's averaging 22 and shooting fifty percent. He's also averaging 11 assists per game and plays defense like a maniac. Deandre Jordan has helped keep this Clipper's ship afloat, but make no mistake--Chris Paul is still the captain.

Anthony Davis--We've known for a couple years that Davis was going to be a force in the league, and this year we're finally starting to see what we've been waiting for. The Brow's stat line for March? 28 points, 11 rebounds, four blocks, and three assists per game. He's got the Pelicans close to a playoff spot with almost no help. Who's the best player beside him? Omer Asik? Alexis Ajinca?

We all know Davis isn't going to win the MVP. But he deserves to be mentioned here, if only because we're getting to see a glimpse of the future. What he's doing in New Orleans is incredible. And in the next ten years, he'll get a couple of Podoloff trophies. Just not yet.

LeBron James--Here's the problem: we've become so accustomed to LeBron's greatness that we ignore his MVP numbers every year. He makes excellence look ordinary, and he loses MVP votes because of it. LeBron knows he's held to a different standard and pretends like it doesn't bother him. But it does, and it should.

Yes, his numbers are down this year. A little. But he's still averaging 25/5/7, just off his career numbers of 27/7/6. His assists are up, though, which shows he's trying to get his teammates involved and teach this young Cavaliers team how to win. And we can't forget, LeBron has been to four Finals in a row. That's almost like playing an extra season. At some point he's going to wear down, if he's not bionic. He's not, which is why he needed a two week break early this season. Voters will count that against him, along with the usual stuff mentioned above.

Just don't forget that we're watching one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Appreciate it while you can.

Russell Westbrook--Forget about the triple-doubles, and the gaudy scoring numbers. The statistics are crazy, but they're not what makes Westbrook's season special. What he's doing is incredible, and it's for his team. He came back earlier than expected after Oklahoma City started out 3-12 and has been dragging them to the playoffs ever since. Durant has been in and out of the lineup all year (and is now out until next season). The rest of the team has been nicked up, underdeveloped, and shuffled because of trades or benching.

The one constant has been Russell Westbrook ripping through the league like a buzz saw. Nothing has been able to stop him. Not even a broken face. He plays every game like it's his last, and that's not even a cliche. I've never seen someone play as hard as Westbrook has this year. I watch every Thunder game I can just to see him play, and I don't know if there's a bigger compliment to a basketball player than that. I'm just worried he'll spontaneously combust at any moment.

The problem is that Oklahoma City is just barely holding onto a playoff spot, and Westbrook has missed fifteen games this season. That won't help him, just like LeBron's mini-vacation doesn't help him. But the biggest reason Westbrook won't win is because the last two guys on this list are having special seasons.

James Harden--I was watching the Rockets the other day and one of the announcer proclaimed "We knew Harden was good, but we weren't sure he was going to be this good." Well, I think that's crap. I knew Harden was a franchise player, and I'm not even close to a professional basketball scout. Not only can he score at will, but he distributes the ball easily, making his teammates better. That's what you want from a cornerstone player.

That and defense. Last year, Harden was maligned all over the internet for his defense. Vines and memes were circulated, making a washing machine look like a defensive upgrade over Harden. But to his credit, he's put in the effort to become a more complete player and it shows. He still has room to grow, but you can't mock him anymore.

And what he has done in Houston is just short of amazing. Name the next best player on the roster after Harden. Dwight Howard? He's missed most of the season. Undersized Terrence Jones? Josh Smith, who Detroit paid to go away? Trevor Ariza not in a contract year? Corey Brewer?

James Harden has definitely done the most with the least help on his roster. For that, he deserves a lot of MVP votes. But...

Steph Curry--Historically speaking, the best player on a great team wins the MVP. And the Warriors are heading for an all-time season with at least 67 wins. And while there's no denying that Curry's surrounding cast is much more talented than Harden's or Westbrook's, he's the motor that makes this team go.

I didn't see this coming. I knew Curry was a talented shooter and could score, but I was always worried about his ankles. Don't forget, there was serious question about whether those ankles could hold up to an NBA season, much less an NBA career. But with the injury trouble behind him, Curry has turned into a perennial all-star and a complete point guard.

It's the shooting though that is the most amazing. Can you think of anything more terrifying than Curry lining up for a potential game winning shot against your team in an important game? Conversely, if Curry is on your favorite team and he's shooting for the win, you've got feel like it's going in more often than not.

I've seen Curry hit some ridiculous shots this year, some that made me cringe before they went in. I don't know if he's just having one insane season or if he's going to do this for the next ten years. I'm hoping for a decade of transcendent shooting. Curry this season is the reason why we watch sports. We hope to see something new, something we've never seen before, something that leaves us shaking our heads in disbelief. Curry does that once a week. For me, that's reason enough for him to be the MVP.

All these guys could win and I'd be okay with it. Personally, I'd choose Westbrook or LeBron. One for treating every game like a target he was hired to assassinate, the other for doing a pretty good impersonation of a machine that was made to go through four straight Finals. But I understand that Harden or Curry will probably win, and they'll deserve it.

I watch basketball to be entertained, and all these guys are doing a great job of entertaining me. So for me, it's hard to go wrong with the MVP vote.

The Three Eras of Shawn Marion

We tend to break down life into eras. It's human nature. We do it with sports, history, even our own lives. There was history before 9/11 and after. There's our lives before and after we had kids. Our job before and after we got that promotion.

I definitely look at NBA players that way. Every time they move to a new team, get a new star teammate, or get a career-changing coach, it's the start of a new era for them. Sometimes it's hard to tell one era from another until years later.

For me, there have been three eras in Shawn Marion's long and stellar career. He's been electric and moody, an erratic shooter and a dominate defender, and so much more. Whatever you think of him, I consider Marion to be one of the most interesting players I've ever watched. And I'm looking forward to his time in Cleveland, which might be the start of a new era in his career. But I'll wait until I see the Cavs play before discussing that. Let's get to the three eras of Shaw Marion:

The 7 Seconds or Less Suns--We were introduced to Shawn Marion as a lanky, lightning quick scorer out of UNLV. He made the Western Conference all-star team in his fourth year, averaging 21 points and 9 rebounds a game. That's pretty good, but it's downright miraculous when you consider that the point guard on that team was none other than Stephon Marbury. It's amazing he even got to touch the ball on offensive possessions.

Mike D'Antoni took over in 2003 and installed a system that fit Marion like a glove. Then Steve Nash arrived from Dallas and the fast-paced, 7 Seconds or Less offense was born. Marion thrived, making the all-star team three years in a row. The Suns averaged 59 wins over those three seasons and made the Western Conference Finals twice. It probably would have been three if not for A'mare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw being suspended for stepping onto the floor in a game four shoving match.

My memory of Marion during these years is a gravity-defying, back-cutting beast, sliding into space just in time to catch a pass from Nash and slam the ball home. I can't remember a player with a better fit for a system. Maybe LeBron James in Miami, forcing turnovers and then running like a freight train on the break. Marion would have dominated in the system no matter what. Adding Nash at the helm just made Marion even more devastating.

Unfortunately, Nash played so well it made the Suns' management think that Marion was expendable. They thought Nash was the key, and all that mattered was surrounding him with young athletes who could score. This led to a sour relationship between Marion and the Suns. He felt disrespected, slighted, and unappreciated. Marion asked for a trade, and on February 6, 2008, he was traded to the Miami Heat for Shaquille O'Neal.

The Lost Years--After that trade to Miami, I'll admit I lost track of Marion. The Heat weren't very good at the time, and Marion's scoring dropped off significantly, to 14 points per game. Marion and the Heat tried to negotiate a deal, but never could agree to terms. In February of 2009, Marion was traded to the Raptors in a move that cleared cap space which would be used to sign LeBron James in the summer of 2010.

Marion only played 27 games with the Raptors, and no one had illusions about him staying past the 2009 season. But Marion is a pro, so he talked about the opportunities in Toronto and trying to make the playoffs (even though the Raptors were five games out at the time). The thought at the time was that Bryan Colangelo was clearing cap space in an attempt to keep Chris Bosh in Canada. It didn't work.

The Championship Years--In the summer of 2009, Shawn Marion signed a four year contract with the Raptors and was promptly traded to the Dallas Mavericks. The deal was insanely complicated and required four teams to facilitate. I'd always liked Marion, but now, living in Dallas, I got to see him play all the time and came to appreciate him even more.

Marion had come so close to a championship in Phoenix and then spent the last two seasons toiling away on mediocre teams. By the time he signed with Dallas, Marion was hungry for that elusive ring. He ended up being coached by Rick Carlisle at the perfect time in his career.

The Mavericks explained to Marion that they didn't need a high volume scorer. They needed a defensive stopper who could contribute occasionally on the offensive end. It would be a shift in playing style for him, a challenge for a veteran with pride. But to his credit, Marion fully bought into the role.

Over the next four seasons, Marion took on whatever defensive challenge was thrown his way. Every night he guarded the opposing team's best scorer. He never made another all-star team, because his numbers slipped. But anyone watching him play could tell he was an integral part of the team, snagging rebounds, hitting corner three's with that unique shooting motion, and sinking awkward floaters. Whatever the Mavs needed, Marion was there to provide.

It paid off in 2011, when Dallas won their first championship. All along the way, Marion put his stamp on the playoff run. He ended up guarding LaMarcus Aldridge, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James. It's rare to find a defender who can guard that quality of player effectively and still contribute on offense. But Marion did.

I've watched him now, quietly playing solid basketball on a stripped down Dallas team. He never complained, never pouted about the lack of talent around him. He was the ultimate professional, going out and doing his job every day.

I'm glad he's ended up on this highly publicized Cavaliers team, because I want the world to see how great a player Marion is. And I know he's on the downside of a great career, but I think he'll still have some great moments in the playoffs the next couple of years. So take the time and enjoy the last few highlights of a tough, complete, and quiet basketball legend.

The Four Best Coaches Right Now

A couple days ago, I wrote about the four best players right now. Today, I want to talk about the four best coaches in the NBA right now. Just a couple things to remember. First, this column is just for active, current NBA coaches. That's why Red Auerbach isn't listed. Second, it's just my opinion. If you disagree, leave your four best coaches in the comments section. Here we go:

Greg Poppovich--No one's going to argue with me on this pick. He's got five championships and has led the Spurs to the playoffs in fifteen consecutive seasons. He's been able to change styles and change players, depending on what is best for the team. Pop is up there with Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach, no question. The secret to his success, according to him? "Draft Tim Duncan."

Rick Carlisle--Within NBA circles, Carlisle is highly respected. But casual basketball fans don't give him the love he deserves. I don't know why. He was great in Detroit and Indiana, and has been exactly what the Dallas Mavericks needed the last few years. He gets the most defensively out of any team and lets the players play on offense. I've seen him turn several lost-cause cases on defense into serviceable defensive players. The guy got Monta Ellis to play hard on defense. Do you need anymore proof? Also, he and Poppovich are the only two coaches to defeat Erik Spoelstra in the playoffs since 2010.

Erik Spoelstra--I know a lot of people think Spoelstra was just lucky to coach LeBron James. But that's not giving him the credit he deserves. There will always be that kind of criticism when you coach great players (see: Phil Jackson), but you have to remember that the Big Three Miami Heat wasn't working out in the beginning. They started out their first season 9-8, with some bickering and a lot of self-doubt. Spoelstra changed his style of play, loosened up, and let the athletes on his team attack. The rest is history. It'll be interesting to see what he does now that LeBron is gone.

Doc Rivers--The current coach of the Los Angeles Clippers has been successful at every coaching stop in his career. He's won a championship with the Celtics and is widely known as a favorite of players everywhere. Even more impressive was the way he held together the Clippers franchise during the Donald Sterling catastrophe last year. Doc is smart and knows the game of basketball as well as the other coaches on this list.

Who do you think are the four best coaches right now?

The Four Best Players Right Now

In the spirit of Mount Rushmore, I wanted to talk about the best four players in the NBA right now. This isn't based on their past achievements or whether they'll be Hall of Famers one day. This is just cut and dried, who's the best right now. Also, this isn't a ranking. It's just who are the best four.

But first, some honorable mentions:

Carmelo Anthony--If this were the top four offensive players, Melo would be in. But he isn't fully committed on defense (which could change) and isn't concerned with making teammates better. He wants to win, but hasn't grasped the details of how to do it.

Derrick Rose--If he's healthy, Rose is on this list. But he hasn't been healthy in two years, so maybe he'll make the next one. For the sake of the NBA, I hope he holds up all season.

Paul George--Before the gruesome leg injury in Las Vegas, I would've had George rounding out this foursome. But he's out for the next year, so he missed the cut.



Now on to the Four Best Players Right Now:

LeBron James--There's not a lot I have to say. James defends all five positions, can run the point, is devastating on the fast break as either ball handler or wing, and can score or distribute, depending on his team's needs. He's clutch, despite what people might say. He's shown he knows how to win in the playoffs. There's not a lot of holes in LeBron's game. When the worst thing you can say about a guy is that he should've won a dunk contest by now, that's pretty good.

Kevin Durant--I'm always amazed at the different ways Durant can score and how efficiently he does it. And while he's not the greatest defender, he has a long wingspan and wants to play defense. He usually picks up the opposing team's best player. Sometimes that attitude is one of the best attributes of a good defensive player. The only thing he has left to do is win a championship, but even if he comes up empty in that regard, he's still going to end up one of the best players of all time.

Anthony Davis--He proved he belongs here during the FIBA World Cup. Davis is a strong defender, can score inside or out, and rebounds as well as anyone in the league. The Brow averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds a game last year. Some of the players who didn't put up numbers like that in their second year? Kevin Love. Dwight Howard. LaMarcus Aldridge. DeMarcus Cousins. Davis is a star in the making. If only the NBA knew that, maybe they'd put him on national TV more than twice this season.

Chris Paul--I'm kind of doubting myself as I write this, because Paul has never made it past the second round of the playoffs. But maybe that's because he hasn't had a lot of talent around him. His best teammates in New Orleans were David West and a past his prime Peja Stojakovic. Blake Griffin is the best player he's had on his side, and Griffin hasn't even hit his prime yet. So you can forgive Paul for his lack of playoff success. He knows what needs to be done to get his team a win, whether it's scoring, distributing, or bugging the hell out of the other team. Pound for pound, he's one of the best players in the NBA.

Who do you think are the four best players right now?

GM Power Rankings

Here are my first ever GM power rankings. They are completely subjective and biased and are not scientific at all. Sometimes I picked one guy over another because I just liked him personally. Also, at times I didn't pick the actual GM but the guy who's really in charge. So the title here is pretty liberal. Just go with it.

1. R.C. Buford/Gregg Popovich--The Spurs won the championship last year, so they've got to be at the top of this list. Buford and Popovich are always able to find the perfect complimentary players to orbit their superstars. They know how to manage the cap better than any team in the league and have had a fifteen year run of dominance as a result.

2. Donnie Nelson/Mark Cuban--This is mostly based on cajones. The Mavs have missed out on free agent after free agent the last few years, so this summer they laid it all on the line and overpaid for Chandler Parsons. At least right now they've overpaid. When Parsons is an all-star the next three years, it'll look like a bargain. Nelson has also made some moves that make the Mavs competitive but also flexible.

3. Pat Riley--Yeah, they've lost LeBron and failed to add anything to the team around him. But Riley orchestrated that Heat dynasty and made some pretty good recovery moves once James left for Cleveland. As long as he's in charge, Miami will be in the running for the playoffs.

4. Daryl Morey--The master of acquiring assets and advanced statistics. Morey swung and missed this offseason, but he keeps the Rockets flexible and has been able to land two superstars out of virtually nothing. Don't ever count him out.

5. Danny Ainge--This guy is constantly wheeling and dealing. Right now things look bleak in Boston, but Ainge is stacking assets and will have the pieces and cap room to go after any big free agents that become available. He also hired Brad Stevens, the perfect coach for building up the Celtics again.

6. Neil Olshey--The Trailblazers almost became Cleveland West a few years ago. LaMarcus Aldridge was getting ready to leave and there were just a few overpriced veterans populating the roster. But Olshey drafted well, played free agency perfectly, and convinced Aldridge to stay. Now they look like a team on the rise.

7. Doc Rivers--This actually has more to do with the way Rivers handled himself and the Clippers last spring during the Donald Sterling situation. Rivers hasn't had a chance to make a lot of moves yet. But adding Spencer Hawes was a smart, underrated move that should pay dividends and shows that Rivers is concerned with smart basketball moves rather than headlines.

8. Masai Ujiri--The man who traded Carmelo Anthony is rebuilding Canada into a basketball powerhouse. I was incredibly surprised to see Kyle Lowry return, so it's obvious the players believe in what the Raptors are building. Ujiri has made some shrewd trades and seems more concerned with the long term future than just appeasing fans now. Plus I love Toronto's "We the North" playoff slogan.

9. John Paxson/Gar Forman--Chicago's executives are underrated. They've fielded a competitive team despite the horrible injuries that Derrick Rose has sustained. Now that they've replaced Carlos Boozer with Pau Gasol, I'm ready to vault them into the top ten. They always find what their team needs off the scrap heap and let Tom Thibodeau mold that player into a valuable contributor.

10. Sam Presti--I'd rank this Popovich disciple a little higher, because he's made incredibly smart and successful moves his entire tenure with the Thunder. But his inability to put quality pieces around Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook the last few years (plus that horrible James Harden trade) led me to rank him this low. Presti's biggest weakness might be Durant, whose talent erases a lot of personnel mistakes.

11. Larry Bird/Kevin Pritchard--The Pacers have done a great job of building a team through the draft and smart free agent moves. But I dropped them in the rankings because they tried too hard at the trade deadline last February with the additions of Evan Turner and Andrew Bynum. And I didn't like the way they handled the Lance Stephenson contract.

12. Ryan McDonough--This young GM is rebuilding the Suns faster than anyone thought possible. And I like the way he's handled the Eric Bledsoe contract situation, refusing to overpay. (Even though Bledsoe is a great young player)

13. Danny Ferry--No one's really paying attention to Ferry because the Hawks are getting good very quietly. They aren't quite yet a title contender, but they are only one big move away from having a chance to win the NBA Finals.

14. Bob Myers--The Warriors are another team that is poised to make a big leap with just one or two big personnel moves. I liked that Myers held firm on not trading Klay Thompson in a Kevin Love deal, because I don't think Love would have pushed the Warriors over the hump.

15. Sam Hinkie--This is sort of premature on my part, because we won't know if Hinkie's strategy will work for another few years. But I like what he's doing in Philly, and he's very creative.

16. Chris Wallace--The Grizzlies' GM has made some interesting choices lately, but he's the one who put together the talented Memphis roster. I like GM's who decide on an identity and build on it. That's what Wallace has done in Memphis.

17. Rob Hennigan--Orlando hasn't been the same since the Dwight Howard trade, but they are building a solid foundation and making smart moves. Hennigan makes good draft choices and has let key veterans leave when they've gotten too expensive. Again, this is a GM who knows what he wants his team to look like, and that's more important than most people think.

18. Mitch Kupchak--The Lakers' GM hasn't looked spectacular lately, especially after giving Kobe Bryant that albatross of a contact, but he's still one of the league's best. The Dwight Howard/Steve Nash trade didn't work, but it was a risk he had to take. Deals like that are hard to manufacture.

19. Dennis Lindsey--The Utah GM is another executive quietly building a solid foundation in Salt Lake City. Matching Gordon Hayward's offer sheet from Charlotte was big. Lindsey needs to hit on a draft pick (perhaps Exum?) because free agents aren't clamoring to come to Utah.

20. Rich Cho--Charlotte is an up-and-coming team in the East, and Cho is a big part of that. The Al Jefferson deal raised a few eyebrows, but it turned out to be a solid deal for a team needing a veteran. It didn't hurt that Jefferson played at a higher level than anyone expected. Bringing on Lance Stephenson was a risk, but it might pay off.

21. Phil Jackson/Steve Mills--This is another case where we don't have enough info to give an accurate grade, but I like how Jackson held his ground with Carmelo Anthony and made some subtle moves to make the team better in the short and long term. Jackson might be the guy who finally turns the Knicks around.

22. Ernie Grunfield--On the one hand, Grunfeld gave Gilbert Arenas a contract worth $100 million. On the other, he did trade Kwame Brown away, getting rid of one of the worst draft picks ever. The Wizards have a talented young roster, and should be better given the amount of high picks they've had the last decade.

23. Stan Van Gundy--He can't be worse than Joe Dumars. Right? It'd be impossible. And he's been good at every previous stop.

24. Flip Saunders--He's not done great as an executive so far, but he did get a pretty good haul for Kevin Love. I don't like that he's coaching the team, though. A good GM wouldn't do that.

25. Dell Demps--He's not horrible, but the Pelicans lucked into what will be one of the best players in the NBA in Anthony Davis, and Demps has failed to surround him with quality pieces. The Pelicans should be a playoff contender in 14-15, but they won't because of Davis' poor supporting cast.

26. Pete D'Alessandro--I have no idea what the Kings are doing. It really makes no sense, and D'Alessandro is the architect of this madness.

27. Tim Connelly--The Nuggets got some quality pieces from the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony trade, but Denver has failed to develop those players into a good team. And part of that falls to Connelly. He needs to make some smart moves soon.

28. David Griffin--This guy should buy a lottery ticket.

29. John Hammond--I don't know what was worse--signing OJ Mayo or trying to create an tourist attraction with dinosaurs. Either way, Hammond isn't at the top of the basketball GM world.

30. Billy King--King is a good basketball mind, but what he's done in Brooklyn is just atrocious. They have no cap space, no draft picks, and a very old team that doesn't perform. They are without a doubt the most inefficient team when it comes to dollars to wins.

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade--Rivals?

Four years ago LeBron James left Cleveland. I agreed with that decision.

He took his talents to South Beach. I shook my head and couldn't believe it.

I wanted James to leave Cleveland and never look back. If I'm honest, as a Mavericks fan, I wanted him to come to Dallas. Besides that pipe dream, I wanted to see him in New York. Or on the Clippers, creating a legacy that would be the subject of documentaries and books for years to come.

Instead, LeBron teamed up with his rival Dwyane Wade and went to four straight Finals, winning two of them. But maybe to LeBron, Wade wasn't a rival. Maybe it was the Big Three of the Celtics--Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett--that he perceived as his rival. Maybe he saw Wade as an ally and friend instead of a challenger to his title as the best player in the Eastern conference and the NBA.

This brings up a lot of questions. Does the public's perception of a player matter to his historical legacy? Or is the legacy solely up to the player and what he wants to accomplish in his career? Was Dwyane Wade really a contender for LeBron's crown? Who decides which players are rivals? Let's hash it out:

Who decides a player's legacy? When we talk about a player's legacy, we're dealing with a subjective topic. You and I might disagree about who is the best player of all time. We might even disagree on the criteria we use to decide who that is. Do we use championships? Career scoring totals? Anecdotes from former teammates and opponents? It's not scientific and people rarely agree. It's why ESPN has about 23 hours of debate programming on now days.

Ultimately what we're trying to do is put the player's career into perspective. We'll never get the chance to see LeBron James and Michael Jordan play against each other, so we have to find a way to compare them. So we look at their career, and what they accomplished, and whether they achieved more or less than we expected them to throughout their time in the NBA.

But the question remains--who decides that legacy? For instance, maybe LeBron James only set his sight on one championship. When he was a boy, just dreaming of playing in the NBA, maybe he said to himself, "I'm going to work as hard as I can and become good enough to win one NBA championship. That's all I want. I just want to taste that victory once."

If that's the case, LeBron has accomplished more than he set out to as a kid. Based on his letter in Sports Illustrated, one of his goals is to win a championship in Cleveland. If he does that, maybe he's satisfied with his career. Maybe he has numerous other goals we don't know about.

The point is we (NBA fans and the general public) decided almost a decade ago that to be successful LeBron James would have to win as many or more championships than Michael Jordan did. We decided this without LeBron. We put it on him without asking. So why do we get to decide that James didn't reach his full potential? Maybe as an 18 year old kid in Akron, Ohio, LeBron wrote down a list of goals that included making $500 million, winning a championship in Cleveland, and scoring 40,000 career points. If he checks off every one of those items, would he consider himself a success? Would we consider him a failure for only winning three championships?

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer here. It's just something worth considering. Maybe it's a combination of both.

Were Dwayne Wade and LeBron James ever rivals?

I considered LeBron and Wade rivals. After a few years, it was obvious that they were the two best players in the 2003 draft. Carmelo was lurking, but LeBron made the Finals once and Wade won a championship with Shaq. They were both in the Eastern Conference, it looked like they would be meeting in the conference finals year after year.

Except Miami bottomed out after winning the title in 2006. And the Celtics formed their Big 3 of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett. And Wade, James, and Bosh enjoyed playing with each other in the 2008 Olympics. A lot.

LeBron kept running into the Celtics teams more talented than the ones he carried into the playoffs. I believe he saw those Celtics as his rivals. They kept beating him. They berated him while they did it. Especially Garnett. And Cleveland kept failing to get him any help. The best teammate he had was way past his prime Shaquille O'Neal. He looked around and thought, "I'm supposed to beat three Hall of Famers by myself?"

Dwyane Wade was Lebron's natural rival. It made sense, based on their talent and the situation and the history of the NBA as we know it. But that rivalry never got a chance to develop because of the reasons mentioned above. So it doesn't surprise me that James started looking at Wade as an ally and friend. Both of them knew they weren't going to have a chance at winning a title with that three-headed Celtics monster lurking in their conference unless they teamed up.

Who decides rivalries?

Again, this is real subjective. And I think rivalries are almost never "decided." They just form organically over time, because of insults and circumstances and familiarity and geography. There are a lot of sports rivalries that mean a lot to fans and nothing to the players. Think Yankees-Red Sox.

A lot of times fans will want a rivalry that's just not there. And sometimes rivalries appear out of nowhere, because someone dissed someone, or hit on someone's girl, or strutted a little too much after a dunk, or threw an elbow under the basket. Sometimes rivalries happen just because two teams want to win a title really, really, badly. There's really no predicting these things or making them happen artificially.

In my mind, Wade and James were the perfect rivals. A new Magic and Bird situation. But it never materialized, and I guess that's okay. Celtics-Lebron and Celtics-Heat was really fun to watch. So was Heat-Spurs and Heat-Mavs. And all that matters is if this stuff is entertaining.

Field Goal Percentage Allowed and NBA Champions

What do all NBA champions for the last fifteen years have in common?

Good defense.

Sounds like a reasonable answer, what with the common perception that "defense wins championships." But in the NBA, it's not just a cliche. It's gospel.

From the 2000 Lakers to the 2014 Spurs, every championship team ranks near the top ten in field goal percentage allowed. And the only reason I say near is because the 2001 Lakers ranked eleventh in field goal percentage allowed, thanks to a rash of injuries throughout the year. Here's a list of the last fifteen NBA Finals winners and their field goal defense rank:

2014--San Antonio Spurs (8)
2013--Miami Heat (6)
2012--Miami Heat (5)
2011--Dallas Mavericks (8)
2010--Los Angeles Lakers (5)
2009--Los Angeles Lakers (6)
2008--Boston Celtics (1)
2007--San Antonio Spurs (4)
2006--Miami Heat (8)
2005--San Antonio Spurs (3)
2004--Detroit Pistons (3)
2003--San Antonio Spurs (3)
2002--Los Angeles Lakers (1)
2001--Los Angeles Lakers (11)
2000--Los Angeles Lakers (1)

Obviously ranking in the top ten in field goal defense doesn't guarantee a championship. If you've got great defense but are completely inept on offense (looking at you, Chicago), you don't have a chance. But based on history, you've got to be in the top ten of field goal percentage allowed in order to win a championship.

The numbers don't lie.

The only question is how NBA franchises can use this info to build better teams. Any thoughts?

Do Great Players Miss the Playoffs?

With Kevin Love being traded to the Cavaliers came a lot of talk about how good he actually is. Is Love an NBA superstar? A star? Or merely a really good player?

It's a topic that's been hashed and rehashed, so I don't want to get into it. But it did make me think: do great players miss the playoffs?

First, let's define what a great player is. The term is very subjective, so I need to decide on what makes a great player. The easiest way to do so is to look at All-Star selections and All-NBA selections. We can't just go by the All-Star selections because they're partially decided by fan votes.

So we're talking a great player. Not a hall of famer, or even a superstar. Just a great player who can carry his team. I think a good example is Kevin Garnett. Minnesota made the playoffs eight times in Garnett's twelve seasons there. During that stretch, he made the All-Star team ten times and made an All-NBA team eight times. Most of those seasons Garnett wasn't surrounded by the best talent.

Garnett's best teammates during his stretch in Minnesota? Tom Guggliota, Wally Szczerbiak, Stephon Marbury, Terrell Brandon, Sam Cassell, and Latrell Sprewell. Seriously, look at that list. It's more depressing than the February temperatures in Minneapolis. Those were the best players surrounding Garnett, and he still dragged them to the playoffs every year. In 03-04, when he caught in their primes Cassell and Sprewell, the T-Wolves made it to the Western Conference Finals.

That's what a great player does. He drags an average supporting cast to the playoffs. I don't care what they do once they get to the playoffs. That's a completely different animal. But getting your team to the playoffs requires consistent, tough-minded play, night in and night out. It's hard to do and only the best do it. Let's take a look at a few who were able to carry their teams.

Paul Pierce--The Truth didn't have a lot of great players around him until Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett showed up. The best teammate he had before 2008 was Antoine Walker. I'm not going to knock Employee Number Eight, who was a three-time all-star, but he's not exactly Scottie Pippen.

Pierce's Celtics made playoffs ten out of the fifteen years he was there. That's not bad. It's the sign of a player who carries his team. Tony Delk and Raef Lafrentz aren't doing much heavy lifting. Pierce averaged 21.3 points/6.7 rebounds/4 assists during the playoffs in Boston. I think it's safe to say he's a great player who carried his team to the playoffs most years.

Dirk Nowitzki--Dirk has had a better supporting cast around, even though he never had that true number two star. The best the Mavericks could manage was Jason Terry, which was enough to win a title in 2011. (You can't count Steve Nash, because he played for Dallas before he really peaked and became Steve Nash)

The Mavericks have made the playoffs thirteen out of sixteen years since Dirk arrived, getting the most out of lesser players because of all the attention paid to the Big German. Nowitzki averaged 22/8/2 throughout his career, and in the playoffs stepped it up with a line of 25/10/2.

Dallas has been very successful for a decade and a half, and Nowitzki is the reason. Great player, hardly ever missed the playoffs.

Pau Gasol--The Meal Ticket (Yes, that's his nickname. Or it was.) is a really good comparison to Kevin Love. They're both post players who started off their careers in a small market, had limited success, and were traded to championship contenders.

Gasol made the playoffs three years in Memphis, but he had much better teammates around him than Love has had in Minnesota. He wasn't exactly playing with all-stars, but Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Posey, and Bonzi Wells isn't a bad team. But if you look at those players, what you see is a bunch of gritty defenders and knockout shooters stationed around a big man who can consistently score in the paint.

Memphis got swept every year they made it to the postseason. Maybe with another star on the perimeter to compliment Gasol the Grizzlies could've gone farther, but that never materialized. Pau was traded to the Lakers and Memphis rebuilt around Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph.

So what about Kevin Love? He never made the playoffs in Minnesota. Was that his fault, or the team around him? After all, the three players above all missed the playoffs in their career, especially in the early stages of their careers.

The best teammates around Love so far? Ricky Rubio, who might be the worst shooter in league history. Al Jefferson, who promptly tore his ACL and was then traded. Michael Beasley? Luke Ridenour? That's the best the guy has played with his whole NBA career. If I were him, I'd be a walking storm cloud of negativity and hate. People have accused him of chasing stats. So what? What else is he supposed to do when it's negative ten degrees and Rubio is clanging another wide open three?

I'm not sure if Love is a legitimate star, or even a legitimate number two. But he's better than his time in Minnesota suggests. We'll finally get to see him play some meaningful NBA basketball. Maybe then we'll be able to make a better decision on where he stands.