Who Are the Contenders?

A while ago, I wrote that over the last fifteen years, every NBA champion ranked in the top ten in field goal percentage allowed. Read it here. A quick recap: a team isn't guaranteed to win if they're ranked in the top ten, but history shows they won't win a championship if they're not.

The top ten in field goal percentage allowed this year:

1. Golden State
2. Washington
3. Indiana
4. Chicago
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. Portland
8. Charlotte
9. Oklahoma City
10. Memphis

OKC, Indiana, and Charlotte didn't make the playoffs. Milwaukee is just too young to be taken serious. Portland looks too banged up. That leaves us with five teams, plus a few notable omissions.

Washington and Memphis. At some point during the season, these two teams looked like championship contenders. Lately, though, they've been sputtering and picking them to make the Finals would be ludicrous. I can see the Grizzlies getting on a roll and making it. The Wizards--not so much.

Chicago. The Bulls are always in the mix for a championship, but their offense is sporadic. As always, it depends on Derrick Rose getting back to MVP form, something we haven't seen since 2011. Joakim Noah is banged up as well, and he is more important to this team than anyone else. I think Chicago could win the Finals, but a lot of things would have to break their way.

Atlanta. The argument is that they don't have a star to take over in a playoff game, and that's true. But San Antonio has made two consecutive Finals without a dominant superstar, and I think Atlanta has a chance to do something similar. They move the ball incredibly well, and play swarming defense. I picked them to lose to Golden State in the Finals.

Golden State. Everyone thinks this team is just an offensive juggernaut, but they play great defense, too. In fact, out of all the teams in the top ten, the Warriors are probably the most balanced. Draymond Green has a lot to do with that defense, but the entire team is built to switch on picks, which helps them disrupt teams that rotate the ball well, like the Hawks and the Spurs. Golden State is for real.

There are three teams just outside the top ten--Houston, San Antonio, and the Los Angeles Clippers. In 2001, the Lakers won a championship after ranking eleventh in field goal percentage allowed. That ranking might have to do with an injury plagued season, which is something the Spurs are familiar with this year.

Out of those three teams, I think the Spurs are the only one with a chance to compete for the Finals. The Clippers lack depth, and Houston doesn't have enough around James Harden. San Antonio, if healthy, can make a run.

Then there are the Cleveland Cavaliers. They ranked 20th in field goal percentage allowed. But they also made some trades late in the year that improved them defensively. So we don't have a full sample for our statistic. But I watched them throughout the year, and they didn't rise significantly after the trades for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert. If the Cavs were anywhere close to the top ten, I'd probably pick them for the Finals. But being ranked 20th, I can't. They would be making some pretty incredible history if they won.